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Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

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  • Laura Alfaro
  • Maggie Chen
  • Davin Chor

Abstract

Amid public skepticism about trade, we investigate whether evidence-based information—a concise statement of a research finding—can shape preferences towards trade policy. Across survey experiments conducted over 2018-2022 on U.S. general population samples, we consistently uncover a “backfire effect”: Information that highlights benefits from trade (job gains in productive sectors or lower consumer prices) induces protectionist policy choices, particularly among Republicans. We interpret this finding through the lens of a model of prior-biased belief updating. Averting this backfire effect will require addressing the prior beliefs—specifically, over the impact of trade on jobs and trade relations with China—that we find prevalent among respondents inclined toward protectionism.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Maggie Chen & Davin Chor, 2023. "Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?," NBER Working Papers 31240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31240
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    Cited by:

    1. Dolls, Mathias & Schüle, Paul & Windsteiger, Lisa, 2022. "Affecting Public Support for Economic Policies: Evidence from a Survey Experiment about Rent Control in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264060, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Jordi Brandts & Isabel Busom & Cristina Lopez-Mayan, 2024. "Do voice and social information contribute to changing views about rent control policy?," IREA Working Papers 202405, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Fahr, Stephan & Senner, Richard & Vismara, Andrea, 2024. "The globalization of climate change: amplification of climate-related physical risks through input-output linkages," Working Paper Series 2942, European Central Bank.
    4. Jordi Brandts & Isabel Busom & Cristina Lopez-Mayan, 2024. "Do giving voice and social information help in revising a misconception about rent–control?," Working Papers wpdea2404, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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