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International Monetary Instability Between the Wars: Structural Flaws or Misguided Policies?

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  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

This paper reassesses the history of the international monetary system between the wars. It confirms the generality of several widely held interpretations of recent experience with floating exchange rates. There is a positive association between nominal exchange rate variability and real exchange rate variability. But policies of intervention which reduce nominal exchange rate variability do not guarantee a proportionate reduction in nominal exchange rate risk or in real exchange rate variability and unpredictability. A credible commitment to a stable intervention rule is needed to deliver these benefits. The paper then goes on to consider four potential explanations for the collapse of the fixed rate regime that prevailed from 1926 through 1931: (1) failure to play by the "rules of the game", (2) inadequate international economic leadership by the United States, (3) inadequate cooperation among the leading gold standard countries, and (4) structural features of a system in which reserves were comprised of both gold and foreign exchange. It concludes by assessing the role of the international monetary system in the Great Depression.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "International Monetary Instability Between the Wars: Structural Flaws or Misguided Policies?," NBER Working Papers 3124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1988. "Real exchange rate behavior under alternative international monetary regimes : Interwar evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 363-371, March.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Barry Eichengreen, 1988. "Did International Economic Forces Cause The Great Depression?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 6(2), pages 90-114, April.
    4. Nouriel Roubini, 1988. "Offset and Sterilization Under Fixed Exchange Rates With An Optimizing Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 2777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can exchange rate predictability be achieved without monetary convergence? : Evidence from the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 93-115.
    6. Artis, M. J., 1987. "The European monetary system: An evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 175-198.
    7. Jeffrey Sachs & Charles Wyplosz, 1984. "Real Exchange Rate Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1989. "The Comparative Performance of Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: Interwar Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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