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AIL Theory and the Ailing Phillips Curve: A Contract Based Approach to Aggregate Supply

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  • Roger E.A. Farmer

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence from U.S. data of a structurally stable aggregate supply relationship between real and nominal rates of interest and the rate of unemployment. The paper reviews theories of contracts that are based on the twin assumptions of asymmetric information and limited collateral and it argues that these theories (referred to as A.I.L. theories) provide a strong theoretical foundation for a contract-based theory of aggregate supply. It is suggested that the original Phillips curve estimates should be reinterpreted in the light of A.I.L. theories which represent alternatives to the Phelps-Friedman interpretation of the Phillips relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E.A. Farmer, 1989. "AIL Theory and the Ailing Phillips Curve: A Contract Based Approach to Aggregate Supply," NBER Working Papers 3115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
    2. Farmer, Roger E A, 1984. "A New Theory of Aggregate Supply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 920-930, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    2. Asea, Patrick K. & Blomberg, Brock, 1998. "Lending cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 89-128.
    3. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1990. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some empirical evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0078, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    4. Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : application of an ARX approach," Serie Research Memoranda 0057, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.

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