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Disinflation and the Stock Market: Third World Lessons for First World Monetary Policy

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  • Anusha Chari
  • Peter Blair Henry

Abstract

When policymakers implement a disinflation program directed at high inflation, the real dollar value of their country’s stock market index experiences a cumulative abnormal 12-month return of 48 percent in anticipation of the event. In contrast, the average cumulative abnormal 12-month return associated with disinflations directed at moderate inflation is negative 18 percent. The 66-percentage point difference between cumulative abnormal returns, along with descriptive evidence and case studies, suggests that unlike the swift eradication of past high inflations documented by Sargent (1982), the US will not experience a quick, low-cost transition from moderate inflation to the Fed’s two-percent target.

Suggested Citation

  • Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2023. "Disinflation and the Stock Market: Third World Lessons for First World Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 31129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31129
    Note: EFG IFM ME
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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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