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Sentiment, Productivity, and Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • George M. Constantinides
  • Maurizio Montone
  • Valerio Potì
  • Stella Spilioti

Abstract

Previous research finds correlation between sentiment and future economic growth, but disagrees on the channel that explains this result. In this paper, we shed new light on this issue by exploiting cross-country variation in sentiment and market efficiency. We find that sentiment shocks in G7 countries increase economic activity, but only temporarily and without affecting productivity. By contrast, sentiment shocks in non-G7 countries predict prolonged economic growth and a corresponding increase in productivity. The results suggest that sentiment can indeed create economic booms, but only in less advanced economies where noisy asset prices make sentiment and fundamentals harder to disentangle.

Suggested Citation

  • George M. Constantinides & Maurizio Montone & Valerio Potì & Stella Spilioti, 2023. "Sentiment, Productivity, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 31031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31031
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    Cited by:

    1. Jalles, João Tovar & Karras, Georgios, 2023. "Macroeconomic volatility and the current account: Extending the evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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