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Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity: The Case of Air Toxics Standards

Author

Listed:
  • Gautam Gowrisankaran
  • Ashley Langer
  • Wendan Zhang

Abstract

Government policy uncertainty affects irreversible decisions including technology adoption and exit. This paper quantifies uncertainty surrounding the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS). We estimate a dynamic oligopoly model for coal-fired electricity generators that recovers generators' beliefs regarding future MATS enforcement. We develop the Approximate Belief Oligopoly Equilibrium concept where players understand that their decisions impact aggregate market states. MATS enforcement created substantial uncertainty: the perceived enforcement probability dropped to 43%. Resolving uncertainty early would increase profits by $1.39 billion but also pollution costs by $0.652–1.776 billion. Had exit been unlikely, resolving uncertainty early would have decreased pollution.

Suggested Citation

  • Gautam Gowrisankaran & Ashley Langer & Wendan Zhang, 2022. "Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity: The Case of Air Toxics Standards," NBER Working Papers 30297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30297
    Note: EEE IO
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    Cited by:

    1. Vehviläinen, Iivo, 2023. "Greed is good? Of equilibrium impacts in environmental regulation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Sears, Louis S. & Lawell, C.Y. Cynthia Lin & Torres, Gerald & Walter, M. Todd, 2022. "Moment-based Markov Equilibrium Estimation of High-Dimension Dynamic Games: An Application to Groundwater Management in California," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322187, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Michele Fioretti & Junnan He & Jorge Tamayo, 2024. "Prices and Concentration: A U-Shape? Theory and Evidence from Renewables," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04631762, HAL.
    4. Michele Fioretti & Junnan He & Jorge Tamayo, 2024. "Prices and Concentration: A U-Shape? Theory and Evidence from Renewables," Working Papers hal-04631762, HAL.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects

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