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Social Interactions and Lottery Stock Mania

Author

Listed:
  • Turan G. Bali
  • David Hirshleifer
  • Lin Peng
  • Yi Tang
  • Qiguang Wang

Abstract

We find that social interactions are associated with stocks becoming more lottery-like and with greater investor overoptimism about the lottery characteristic. Heightened social media activity about a stock positively predicts the probability of an extreme daily price run-up, a lottery event. Lottery event stocks subject to more extensive social media discussions subsequently experience greater retail buying pressure—particularly from Robinhood users—followed by lower returns. Moreover, lottery stocks of firms headquartered in more socially connected counties experience lower subsequent returns. Our findings are consistent with theories in which social interactions stimulate investor excitement and asset price bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Turan G. Bali & David Hirshleifer & Lin Peng & Yi Tang & Qiguang Wang, 2021. "Social Interactions and Lottery Stock Mania," NBER Working Papers 29543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29543
    Note: AP
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Qi Xu & Yang Ye, 2023. "Commodity network and predictable returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(10), pages 1423-1449, October.
    2. Eaton, Gregory W. & Green, T. Clifton & Roseman, Brian S. & Wu, Yanbin, 2022. "Retail trader sophistication and stock market quality: Evidence from brokerage outages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 502-528.
    3. Hao, Jing & Wang, Ziqiao & Zhang, Xiaotao & He, Feng & Chen, Xuehong, 2024. "Culture imprint and gambling preference: Evidence from individual investors' trading in the Chinese stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Chen, Xing & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2022. "Heterogeneous investor attention and post earnings announcement drift: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Agarwal, Vikas & Cochardt, Alexander Elmar & Orlov, Vitaly, 2022. "Birth order and fund manager's trading behavior: Role of sibling rivalry," CFR Working Papers 22-12, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Horn, Matthias & Schneider, Julian & Oehler, Andreas, 2024. "Do transactions on social trading platforms predict the stock market behavior of the aggregate private sector?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Zhibing Li & Jie Liu & Xiaoyu Liu & Chonglin Wu, 2024. "Investor attention and stock price efficiency: Evidence from quasi‐natural experiments in China," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 175-225, March.
    8. Georgij Alekseev & Safaa Amer & Manasa Gopal & Theresa Kuchler & J. W. Schneider & Johannes Stroebel & Nils Wernerfelt, 2023. "The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 7-24, January.
    9. Christophe J. GODLEWSKI & Katarzyna BYRKA-KITA & Renata GOLA & Jacek CYPRYJANSKI, 2022. "Silence is not golden anymore? Social media activity and stock market valuation in Europe," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2022-04, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    10. Kogana, Shimon & Makarov, Igor & Niessnerc, Marina & Schoar, Antoinette, 2024. "Are cryptos different? Evidence from retail trading," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Wang, Cheng & Han, Jing, 2023. "Prospect theory and mutual fund flows: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Escobar, Laura & Pedraza, Alvaro, 2023. "Active trading and (poor) performance: The social transmission channel," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 139-165.
    13. Kormanyos, Emily & Hanspal, Tobin & Hackethal, Andreas, 2023. "Do gamblers invest in lottery stocks?," SAFE Working Paper Series 373, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2023.
    14. Kogan, Shimon & Makarov, Igor & Niessner, Marina & Schoar, Antoinette, 2024. "Are cryptos different? Evidence from retail trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Pelster, Matthias, 2024. "Leverage constraints and investors' choice of underlyings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Baars, Maren & Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2024. "Preferences for maximum daily returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 343-353.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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