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Simulating Endogenous Global Automation

Author

Listed:
  • Seth G. Benzell
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Guillermo LaGarda
  • Victor Yifan Ye

Abstract

This paper develops a 17-region, 3-skill group, overlapping generations, computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the global consequences of automation. Automation, modeled as capital- and high-skill biased technological change, is endogenous with regions adopting new technologies when profitable. Our approach captures and quantifies key macro implications of a range of foundational models of automation. In our baseline scenario, automation has a moderate effect on regional outputs and a small effect on world interest rates. However, it has a major impact on inequality, both wage inequality within regions and per capita GDP inequality across regions. We examine two policy responses to technological change -- mandating use of the advanced technology and providing universal basic income to share gains from automation. The former policy can raise a region's output, but at a welfare cost. The latter policy can transform automation into a win-win for all generations in a region.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth G. Benzell & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Victor Yifan Ye, 2021. "Simulating Endogenous Global Automation," NBER Working Papers 29220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29220
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    Cited by:

    1. Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Lagarda, Guillermo & Marin, Gabriel, 2023. "A Personalized VAT with Capital Transfers: A Reform to Protect Low-Income Households in Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12985, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Tyna Eloundou & Sam Manning & Pamela Mishkin & Daniel Rock, 2023. "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," Papers 2303.10130, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    3. Alonso, Cristian & Berg, Andrew & Kothari, Siddharth & Papageorgiou, Chris & Rehman, Sidra, 2022. "Will the AI revolution cause a great divergence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 18-37.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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