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Long Run Effects of Aid: Forecasts and Evidence from Sierra Leone

Author

Listed:
  • Katherine Casey
  • Rachel Glennerster
  • Edward Miguel
  • Maarten J. Voors

Abstract

We evaluate the long-run effects of a decentralized approach to economic development, called community driven development (CDD), a prominent strategy for delivering foreign aid. Notably we revisit a randomized CDD program in Sierra Leone 11 years after launch. We estimate large persistent gains in local public goods and market activity, and modest positive effects on institutions. There is suggestive evidence that CDD slightly improved communities’ response to the 2014 Ebola epidemic. We compare estimates to the forecasts of experts from Sierra Leone and abroad, working in policy and academia, and find that local policymakers are overly optimistic about CDD’s effectiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Katherine Casey & Rachel Glennerster & Edward Miguel & Maarten J. Voors, 2021. "Long Run Effects of Aid: Forecasts and Evidence from Sierra Leone," NBER Working Papers 29079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29079
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    Cited by:

    1. Alfonsi, Livia & Bauer, Michal & Chytilová, Julie & Miguel, Edward, 2024. "Human capital affects religious identity: Causal evidence from Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. Fiala, Nathan & Rose, Julian & Aryemo, Filder & Peters, Jörg, 2022. "The (very) long-run impacts of cash grants during a crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 961, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development

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