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The Distribution of Investor Beliefs, Stock Ownership and Stock Returns

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  • Gikas Hardouvelis
  • Georgios Karalas
  • Dimitri Vayanos

Abstract

We study theoretically and empirically the relationship between investor beliefs, ownership dispersion and stock returns. We find that high dispersion, measured by high breadth or low Herfindahl index, forecasts returns positively for large stocks, as in Chen, Hong and Stein (2002), but negatively for small stocks. We explain that relationship in a difference-of-opinion model in which stocks differ in the size of investor disagreements and the extent of belief polarization. These differences are characterized by range and kurtosis, respectively. Proxying investor beliefs by analyst forecasts, we find that range and kurtosis affect ownership dispersion in the way that our model predicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Gikas Hardouvelis & Georgios Karalas & Dimitri Vayanos, 2021. "The Distribution of Investor Beliefs, Stock Ownership and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 28697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28697
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    Cited by:

    1. Olkhov, Victor, 2023. "The Market-Based Statistics of “Actual” Returns of Investors," MPRA Paper 116896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. David Blitz & Laurens Swinkels, 2021. "Who owns tobacco stocks?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(5), pages 311-325, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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