IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2868.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inward Versus Outward Growth Orientation in the Presence of Country Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to model the role of trade dependency in determining the access of a developing economy to the international credit market, and its desirable growth strategy. With full integration of capital markets the choice with respect to the inwardness of a technology is irrelevant: investment will be channeled to the more productive sectors, independently of their trade inwardness, With limited capital market integration a given investment will generate two effects. The first is the standard, direct productivity effect that is associated with the change in future output. The second is the trade dependency externality, generated by the change in future bargaining outcomes due to the change in the trade dependency of the nation. With partial integration, investment that increases trade dependency is desirable. If the credit markets are disjoint due to partial defaults, higher trade dependency is disadvantageous. Thus, higher trade dependency generates a positive externality with partial integration of capital markets, and a negative externality with disjoint credit markets. We show that credit market integration is determined by the size of the indebtedness relative to the trade dependency, as reflected by the repayment burden that is supported by the bargaining outcome. The repayment bargaining outcome is determined by the sectoral composition of the economy and by the effective size of the developing and the developed economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman, 1989. "Inward Versus Outward Growth Orientation in the Presence of Country Risk," NBER Working Papers 2868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2868
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2868.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhagwati, Jagdish N. & Srinivasan, T. N., 1976. "Optimal trade policy and compensation under endogenous uncertainty: The phenomenon of market disruption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 317-336, November.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "External debt, capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 199-220, November.
    3. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    4. Arad, Ruth W. & Hillman, Arye L., 1979. "Embargo threat, learning and departure from comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 265-275, May.
    5. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1986. "Country risk, foreign borrowing, and the social discount rate in an open developing economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 79-96, March.
    7. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. "Buybacks, Exit Bonds, and the Optimality of Debt and Liquidity Relief," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 49-70, February.
    8. R. Dornbusch, 1984. "External Debt, Budget Deficits and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates," Working papers 347, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    9. Kletzer, Kenneth M, 1984. "Asymmetries of Information and LDC Borrowing with Sovereign Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 287-307, June.
    10. Alvin E Roth, 2008. "Axiomatic Models of Bargaining," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002376, David K. Levine.
    11. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andersson, Thomas & Burenstam Linder, Staffan, 1991. "East Asian Development and Japanese Direct Investment," Working Paper Series 312, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aizenman, Joshua, 1991. "Trade dependency, bargaining and external debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 101-120, August.
    2. Joshua Aizenman, 1994. "World Integration, Competitive and Bargaining-Regime Switch: An Exploration," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 458-483, May.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua, 1990. "External debt, planning horizon, and distorted credit markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 138-158, June.
    4. Kaushik Basu, 1989. "The International Debt Problem: Could Someone Please Explain It to Me?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1989-078, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
    6. Thomas, Jonathan P., 2004. "Bankruptcy proceedings for sovereign state insolvency and their effect on capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-361.
    7. Joshua Aizenman, 1987. "Investment, Openness, and Country Risk," NBER Working Papers 2410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael P. Dooley, 1994. "A Retrospective on the Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 4963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Chattopadhyay, Pradip, 2003. "Volatility and growth in developing economies: some numerical results and empirical evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 267-295, March.
    10. Theo S. Eicher & Stephen J. Turnovsky & Uwe Walz, 2000. "Optimal Policy for Financial Market Liberalizations: Decentralization and Capital Flow Reversals," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 19-42, February.
    11. Yin‐Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, May.
    12. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Sovereign Risk and Secondary Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1523-1555, September.
    13. Mohr, Ernst, 1992. "The impact of sovereign intertemporal trade and cross-default clauses on the sustainability and efficiency of environmental treaties," Kiel Working Papers 522, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1996. "Reputation Spillover Across Relationships with Enduring and Transient Beliefs: Reviving reputation Models of Debt," NBER Working Papers 5486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. White, Lucy, 2006. "Prudence in Bargaining: The Effect of Uncertainty on Bargaining Outcomes," CEPR Discussion Papers 5822, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 2004. "Agreeing Now to Agree Later: Contracts that Rule Out but do not Rule In," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 109, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    17. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    18. Amnon Levy, 1997. "Sovereign debt: Reputation, seizure and reputation," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 21(1), pages 69-79, March.
    19. Ms. Ana L Fostel & Sandeep Kapur & Mr. Luis Catão, 2007. "Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps," IMF Working Papers 2007/148, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Vidal-Puga, Juan, 2013. "A non-cooperative approach to the ordinal Shapley rule," MPRA Paper 43790, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2868. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.