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Predicting Nursing Home Utilization Among the High-Risk Elderly

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  • Alan M. Garber
  • Thomas E. MaCurdy

Abstract

This paper explores the influence of various characteristics on nursing home utilization. It examines a targeted population of elderly individuals whose poor health and lack of social supports were expected to lead to heavy use of long-term care. We develop an empirical framework based on a transition probability model to describe the frequency and duration of nursing home admissions. Using longitudinal data on the high-risk elderly enrollees of the National Long-Term Care Demonstration ("Channeling" demonstration), we. find that a small set of characteristics distinguish individuals who are likely to be heavy utilizers of nursing homes from low utilizers. The factors associated with a high likelihood of institutionalization are not identical to the health characteristics associated with high mortality; for example, the likelihood of death increases with age, but nursing home utilization does not, when functional status and other characteristics are held constant. A somewhat healthier population might have used nursing homes more heavily than the Channeling participants, whose nursing home utilization was limited by high mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan M. Garber & Thomas E. MaCurdy, 1989. "Predicting Nursing Home Utilization Among the High-Risk Elderly," NBER Working Papers 2843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2843
    Note: AG EH
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    Cited by:

    1. David M. Cutler & Louise Sheiner, 1994. "Policy Options for Long-Term Care," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in the Economics of Aging, pages 395-442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jonathan Feinstein, 1996. "Elderly Health, Housing, and Mobility," NBER Chapters, in: Advances in the Economics of Aging, pages 275-320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alan M. Garber, 1994. "Financing Health Care for Elderly Americans in the 1990s," NBER Chapters, in: Aging in the United States and Japan: Economic Trends, pages 175-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. VanderHart, Peter G., 1998. "The Housing Decisions of Older Households: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 21-48, March.
    5. Peter G. VanderHart, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of the Housing Decisions of Older Homeowners," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 205-233, June.
    6. Axel Borsch-Supan, 1989. "A Dynamic Analysis of Household Dissolution and Living Arrangement Transitions by Elderly Americans," NBER Working Papers 2808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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