Promoting Platform Takeoff and Self-Fulfilling Expectations: Field Experimental Evidence

The theoretical literature on platforms and network effects predicts that the initial growth and takeoff of a platform crucially depends on the market’s expectations of the future installed base. This paper tests this claim, reporting on a field experiment in which invitations to join a newly launched platform were sent to 16,349 individuals and included randomized statements regarding the future expected installed base (along with disclosures of the current installed base). I find evidence consistent with subjective expectations playing a crucial role in shaping early adoption and platform takeoff. Statements regarding expectations of the future installed base more significantly affected adoption than did disclosures of the current installed base. Statements of larger numbers of expected users caused more adoption than did smaller numbers. Statements of a smaller installed base of users (whether current or expected) led to lower demand than did stating nothing at all. The effect of stating subjective expectations by the platform became insignificant once the current installed base grew larger. The response of adoption to expected numbers of users reveals patterns consistent with the long-theorized chicken-and-egg problem and self-fulfilling expectations. The findings have significant implications for the effective promotion, marketing, and “evangelism” of new platform ventures.