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The (Missing) Relation Between Announcement Returns and Value Creation

Author

Listed:
  • Itzhak Ben-David
  • Utpal Bhattacharya
  • Stacey E. Jacobsen

Abstract

Cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) computed during acquisition announcements are widely considered to be market-based assessments of expected value creation. We show that announcement returns do not correlate with commonly used and new measures of ex-post acquisition outcomes. A simple characteristics model using standard information known at announcement can predict outcomes reasonably well, and CAR fails even to capture the prediction from this model. A likely reason is that, because acquisition decisions are endogenous, CAR conveys information about the NPV of the deal as well as the event that triggered the deal announcement. We find that CAR variance is too high to be explained by NPV variance alone, suggesting that other non-NPV information related to this trigger dominates. We conclude that CAR is an unreliable measure of expected value creation.

Suggested Citation

  • Itzhak Ben-David & Utpal Bhattacharya & Stacey E. Jacobsen, 2020. "The (Missing) Relation Between Announcement Returns and Value Creation," NBER Working Papers 27976, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27976
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    Cited by:

    1. Arindam Das, 2021. "Post-Acquisition Performance of Emerging Market Firms: A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Acquisitions in India," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Ding, Haoyuan & Hu, Yichuan & Li, Chang & Lin, Shu, 2021. "CEO country-specific experience and cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Dong, Yizhe & Li, Chang & Li, Haoyu, 2021. "Customer concentration and M&A performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Dissanaike, Gishan & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Momtaz, Paul P. & Rocholl, Jörg, 2021. "The Economics of Law Enforcement: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Corporate Takeover Law," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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