IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27363.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Qiping Xu
  • Eric Zwick

Abstract

This paper studies tax-minimizing investment, whereby firms tilt capital purchases toward fiscal year-end to reduce taxes. Between 1984 and 2016, average investment in fiscal Q4 exceeds the fiscal Q1 through Q3 average by 36%. Q4 spikes occur in the U.S. and internationally. We use this behavior to characterize the mechanisms through which taxes affect corporate investment behavior. Research designs using variation in firm tax positions from administrative data and tax policy changes confirm that tax minimization causes spikes. Spikes increase when firms face financial constraints or higher option values of waiting until fiscal year-end, and cumulative investment levels do not completely reverse after spikes. We develop an investmentmodel with tax asymmetries to rationalize these patterns. In themodel, both a depreciation motive—late-year investments face lower effective tax rates—and an option value motive—tax asymmetry implies time-varying opportunities to minimize taxes—are necessary to fit the data. We document and discuss implications of investment spikes for capital goods suppliers, lenders, and stimulus policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiping Xu & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior," NBER Working Papers 27363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27363
    Note: CF EFG PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27363.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Owen Zidar, 2016. "Who Benefits from State Corporate Tax Cuts? A Local Labor Markets Approach with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2582-2624, September.
    2. Paul Oyer, 1998. "Fiscal Year Ends and Nonlinear Incentive Contracts: The Effect on Business Seasonality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 149-185.
    3. Xavier Giroud & Joshua Rauh, 2019. "State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1262-1316.
    4. Bradford, David F., 1981. "The incidence and allocation effects of a tax on corporate distributions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Alexander Ljungqvist & Michael Smolyansky, 2014. "To Cut or Not to Cut? On the Impact of Corporate Taxes on Employment and Income," NBER Working Papers 20753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:11:p:3351-3388 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Shin, Hyun-Han & Kim, Yong H., 2002. "Agency costs and efficiency of business capital investment: evidence from quarterly capital expenditures," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 139-158, March.
    8. Michael Faulkender & Mitchell Petersen, 2012. "Investment and Capital Constraints: Repatriations Under the American Jobs Creation Act," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(11), pages 3351-3388.
    9. Danny Yagan, 2015. "Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3531-3563, December.
    10. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 737-768, June.
    11. Jeffrey B. Liebman & Neale Mahoney, 2017. "Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3510-3549, November.
    12. Eric Ohrn, 2018. "The Effect of Corporate Taxation on Investment and Financial Policy: Evidence from the DPAD," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 272-301, May.
    13. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
    14. Abel, Andrew B., 1982. "Dynamic effects of permanent and temporary tax policies in a q model of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 353-373.
    15. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2017. "Tax Policy and Heterogeneous Investment Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 217-248, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Massenz, Gabriella, 2023. "On the behavioral effects of tax policy," Other publications TiSEM eb44a9f7-b859-480d-b2e4-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Hu, Weiping & Li, Kai & Zhang, Xiao, 2024. "Financial constraints, cash flow timing patterns, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harju, Jarkko & Koivisto, Aliisa & Matikka, Tuomas, 2022. "The effects of corporate taxes on small firms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    2. Lerche, Adrian, 2022. "Investment Tax Credits and the Response of Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 15668, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Jacob, Martin & Schneider, Kerstin, 2023. "Do tax incentives affect investment quality?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Jacob, Martin & Schneider, Kerstin, 2020. "Do tax incentives reduce investment quality?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 248, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    5. Li, Bing & Liu, Chang & Sun, Stephen Teng, 2021. "Do corporate income tax cuts decrease labor share? Regression discontinuity evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Abhay Aneja & Nirupama Kulkarni & S. K. Ritadhi, 2021. "Consumption Tax Reform and the Real Economy: Evidence From India's Adoption of a Value‐Added Tax," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 569-602, September.
    7. Adrien Matray & Charles Boissel, 2020. "Higher Dividend Taxes, No Problem! Evidence from Taxing Entrepreneurs in France," Working Papers 276, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    8. Isaac Baley & Andrés Blanco, 2022. "The long-run effects of corporate tax reforms," Economics Working Papers 1813, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Eichfelder, Sebastian & Kluska, Mike & Knaisch, Jonas & Selle, Juliane, 2021. "Senkung der Unternehmenssteuerlast versus Förderung von Investitionen: Was ist die bessere Strategie zur Förderung der Standortattraktivität Deutschlands?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 266, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    10. Laura Dobbins & Martin Jacob, 2016. "Do corporate tax cuts increase investments?," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 731-759, November.
    11. Eric Zwick & James Mahon, 2014. "Do financial frictions amplify fiscal policy? Evidence from business investment stimulus," Working Papers 1415, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    12. Daniel G. Garrett & Eric Ohrn & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, 2020. "Tax Policy and Local Labor Market Behavior," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 83-100, March.
    13. Selale Tuzel & Miao Ben Zhang, 2021. "Economic Stimulus at the Expense of Routine‐Task Jobs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3347-3399, December.
    14. Jean‐Noël Barrot & Ramana Nanda, 2020. "The Employment Effects of Faster Payment: Evidence from the Federal Quickpay Reform," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3139-3173, December.
    15. David Cashin & Jamie Lenney & Byron Lutz & William Peterman, 2018. "Fiscal policy and aggregate demand in the USA before, during, and following the Great Recession," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(6), pages 1519-1558, December.
    16. Scott R. Baker & Stephen Teng Sun & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Corporate Taxes and Retail Prices," NBER Working Papers 27058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Hazans, Mihails & Pluta, Anna, 2020. "Tax incentives to encourage corporate investment in Latvia," MPRA Paper 118601, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Lei Zhang & Yuyu Chen & Zongyan He, 2018. "The effect of investment tax incentives: evidence from China’s value-added tax reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(4), pages 913-945, August.
    19. Crawford, Steven & Markarian, Garen, 2024. "The effect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 on corporate investment11The authors wish to thank an anonymous referee, Heitor Almeida (editor), Novia Chen, Scott Dyreng, Ed Maydew, Sean McGuire, Vol," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    20. Sacchidananda Mukherjee & Shivani Badola, 2023. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in Corporate Tax Rates: A Review," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(1), pages 20-41, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.