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The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan

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  • Takeo Hoshi
  • Anil K Kashyap

Abstract

We take some well-known observations about the structure of the Japanese labor market and add new evidence about how it has evolved to study inflation in Japan. Our key finding is that labor market dynamics shifted after 1998 so that correlations between labor market tightness and wages weakened noticeably. This change was accompanied in a break in the relationship between wages and prices, so wage inflation has become a much less important determinant of price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Takeo Hoshi & Anil K Kashyap, 2020. "The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan," NBER Working Papers 27332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27332
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yoichi Arai & Takeo Hoshi, 2004. "Monetary Policy in the Great Recession," Discussion papers 04024, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Muto Ichiro & Shintani Kohei, 2020. "An empirical study on the New Keynesian wage Phillips curve: Japan and the US," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Masahiro Abe & Takeo Hoshi, 2004. "Corporate Finance and Human Resource Management," Discussion papers 04027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Miyao, Ryuzo, 2000. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 366-384, December.
    5. Takeshi Kimura & Hiroshi Kobayashi & Jun Muranaga & Hiroshi Ugai, 2003. "The effect of the increase in the monetary base of Japan's economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 276-312, Bank for International Settlements.
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    2. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh, 2022. "Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions on Regional Employment: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Papers 2206, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    3. Yoichi Ueno, 2024. "Linkage between Wage and Price Inflation in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    4. Daiji Kawaguchi & Keisuke Kawata & Takahiro Toriyabe, 2021. "An Assessment of Abenomics from the Labor Market Perspective," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 247-278, July.
    5. Ichiro Fukunaga & Kakuho Furukawa & Shunsuke Haba & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yosuke Kido & Tomohiro Okubo & Kotaro Suita & Kosuke Takatomi, 2023. "Wage Developments in Japan: Four Key Issues for the Post-COVID-19 Wage Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    6. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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