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Can Investors Time Their Exposure to Private Equity?

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  • Gregory Brown
  • Robert S. Harris
  • Wendy Hu
  • Tim Jenkinson
  • Steven N. Kaplan
  • David T. Robinson

Abstract

Private equity performance, both for buyouts and venture capital, has been highly cyclical: periods of high fundraising have been followed by periods of low performance. Despite this seemingly predictable variation, we find modest gains, at best, to pursuing realistic, investable strategies that time capital commitments to private equity. This occurs, in part, because investors can only time their commitments to funds; they cannot time when commitments are called or when investments are exited. There is a high degree of time-series correlation in net cash flows even across commitment strategies that allocate capital in a very different manner over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Brown & Robert S. Harris & Wendy Hu & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan & David T. Robinson, 2020. "Can Investors Time Their Exposure to Private Equity?," NBER Working Papers 26755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26755
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sensoy, Berk A. & Wang, Yingdi & Weisbach, Michael S., 2014. "Limited partner performance and the maturing of the private equity industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 320-343.
    2. Harris, Robert S. & Jenkinson, Tim & Kaplan, Steven N. & Stucke, Ruediger, 2018. "Financial intermediation in private equity: How well do funds of funds perform?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 287-305.
    3. Steven N. Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2005. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1791-1823, August.
    4. Nadauld, Taylor D. & Sensoy, Berk A. & Vorkink, Keith & Weisbach, Michael S., 2019. "The liquidity cost of private equity investments: Evidence from secondary market transactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 158-181.
    5. Brown, Gregory W. & Gredil, Oleg R. & Kaplan, Steven N., 2019. "Do private equity funds manipulate reported returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 267-297.
    6. Fang, Lily & Ivashina, Victoria & Lerner, Josh, 2015. "The disintermediation of financial markets: Direct investing in private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 160-178.
    7. Robinson, David T. & Sensoy, Berk A., 2016. "Cyclicality, performance measurement, and cash flow liquidity in private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 521-543.
    8. Steven N. Kaplan & Per Stromberg, 2009. "Leveraged Buyouts and Private Equity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 121-146, Winter.
    9. Josh Lerner & Antoinette Schoar & Wan Wongsunwai, 2007. "Smart Institutions, Foolish Choices: The Limited Partner Performance Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 731-764, April.
    10. Driessen, Joost & Lin, Tse-Chun & Phalippou, Ludovic, 2012. "A New Method to Estimate Risk and Return of Nontraded Assets from Cash Flows: The Case of Private Equity Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 511-535, June.
    11. Niklas Hüther & David T. Robinson & Sönke Sievers & Thomas Hartmann-Wendels, 2020. "Paying for Performance in Private Equity: Evidence from Venture Capital Partnerships," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(4), pages 1756-1782, April.
    12. Ferson, Wayne & Mo, Haitao, 2016. "Performance measurement with selectivity, market and volatility timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 93-110.
    13. Berk A. Sensoy & Steven N. Kaplan, 2015. "Private Equity Performance: A Survey," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 597-614, December.
    14. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan, 2014. "Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1851-1882, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. William H. Janeway & Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2021. "Venture Capital Booms and Start-Up Financing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-127, November.
    2. Aleksandar Andonov & Roman Kräussl & Joshua Rauh & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Institutional Investors and Infrastructure Investing [Pension fund asset allocation and liability discount rates]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3880-3934.
    3. Jenkinson, Tim & Morkoetter, Stefan & Schori, Tobias & Wetzer, Thomas, 2022. "Buy low, sell high? Do private equity fund managers have market timing abilities?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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