IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25438.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

From Immigrants to Robots: The Changing Locus of Substitutes for Workers

Author

Listed:
  • George J. Borjas
  • Richard B. Freeman

Abstract

Increased use of robots has roused concern about how robots and other new technologies change the world of work. Using numbers of robots shipped to primarily manufacturing industries as a supply shock to an industry labor market, we estimate that an additional robot reduces employment and wages in an industry by roughly as much as an additional 2 to 3 workers and by 3 to 4 workers in particular groups, which far exceed estimated effects of an additional immigrant on employment and wages. While the growth of robots in the 1996-2016 period of our data was too modest to be a major determinant of wages and employment, the estimated coefficients suggest that continued exponential growth of robots could disrupt job markets in the foreseeable future and thus merit attention from labor analysts.

Suggested Citation

  • George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman, 2019. "From Immigrants to Robots: The Changing Locus of Substitutes for Workers," NBER Working Papers 25438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25438
    Note: LS
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w25438.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guendalina Anzolin, 2021. "Automation and its Employment Effects: A Literature Review of Automotive and Garment Sectors," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2021-16, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Nikolova, Milena & Cnossen, Femke & Nikolaev, Boris, 2024. "Robots, meaning, and self-determination," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    3. Antón, José-Ignacio & Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2020. "Does Robotization Affect Job Quality? Evidence from European Regional Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Dario Guarascio & Alessandro Piccirillo & Jelena Reljic, 2024. "Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis," Working Papers in Public Economics 245, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    5. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    6. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    7. José-Ignacio Antón & David Klenert & Enrique Fernández-Macías & Maria Cesira Urzì Brancati & Georgios Alaveras, 2022. "The labour market impact of robotisation in Europe," European Journal of Industrial Relations, , vol. 28(3), pages 317-339, September.
    8. Eder, Andreas & Koller, Wolfgang & Mahlberg, Bernhard, 2024. "Industrial robots and employment change in manufacturing: A combination of index and production-theoretical decomposition analysis," MPRA Paper 121128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Genz, Sabrina & Schnabel, Claus, 2021. "Digging into the Digital Divide: Workers' Exposure to Digitalization and Its Consequences for Individual Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 14649, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Alguacil Marí, María Teresa & Lo Turco, Alessia & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2020. "What is so special about robots and trade?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 410, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    11. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2020. "Heterogeneous Relationships between Automation Technologies and Skilled Labor: Evidence from a Firm Survey," Discussion papers 20004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Sun, Wenyuan & Zhang, Zhonghui & Chen, Yang & Luan, Fushu, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects of robots on employment in agriculture, industry, and services sectors," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Deng Liuchun & Plümpe Verena & Stegmaier Jens, 2024. "Robot Adoption at German Plants," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 244(3), pages 201-235, June.
    14. Gregor Wolbring, 2022. "Auditing the ‘Social’ of Quantum Technologies: A Scoping Review," Societies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, March.
    15. Wang, Ting & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Robot adoption and employment adjustment: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. David Klenert & Enrique Fernández-Macías & José-Ignacio Antón, 2023. "Do robots really destroy jobs? Evidence from Europe," Economic and Industrial Democracy, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University, Sweden, vol. 44(1), pages 280-316, February.
    17. Christian Gunadi & Hanbyul Ryu, 2023. "How Do People Respond When They Know That Robots Will Take Their Jobs?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(5), pages 939-958, October.
    18. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 110390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Helfen, Markus & Wirth, Carsten, 2020. "Management von Arbeit in pluralen Netzwerkorganisationen: Trends, Deutungen und Handlungsoptionen," Working Paper Forschungsförderung 185, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    20. Filippi, Emilia & Bannò, Mariasole & Trento, Sandro, 2023. "Automation technologies and their impact on employment: A review, synthesis and future research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    21. Alguacil, Maite & Lo Turco, Alessia & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2022. "Robot adoption and export performance: Firm-level evidence from Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    22. Simerta Gill & Gregor Wolbring, 2022. "Auditing the ‘Social’ Using Conventions, Declarations, and Goal Setting Documents: A Scoping Review," Societies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-100, October.
    23. Holzer, Harry J., 2019. "The US Labor Market in 2050: Supply, Demand and Policies to Improve Outcomes," IZA Policy Papers 148, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Kerstin Hotte & Melline Somers & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2022. "Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review," Papers 2204.01296, arXiv.org.
    25. Taraneh Shahin & María Teresa Ballestar de las Heras & Ismael Sanz, 2024. "Robots in action," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7), pages 2828-2854, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.