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Can Public Spending Cuts be Inflationary?

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  • Willem H. Buiter

Abstract

The paper uses a demand for seigniorage revenue and supply of seigniorage revenue approach to determine the consequences 0 cots in public spending for the rate of inflation. Monetary financing is viewed as the residual financing mode, with tax rates and pubic debt-GDP ratios held constant. In a small open economy with an exogenous real interest rate, cuts n public consumption spending will lower the inflation rate n the revenue-efficient region of the seigniorage Laffer curve. When there are cuts in public sector capital formation , the inflation rate ran rise even in the seigniorage-efficient region. This sill be the case if the expenditure effect which reduces the deficit one-for-one) is more than offset by direct and indirect revenue effects (which raise the deficit) and by an adverse money demand effect. When the real interest rate is endogenous, the scope for inflation-increasing public spending cuts is enhanced.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem H. Buiter, 1988. "Can Public Spending Cuts be Inflationary?," NBER Working Papers 2528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2528
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    1. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buiter, W.H., 1988. "Some Thoughts On The Role Of Fiscal Policy In Stabilisation And Structural Adjustment In Developing Countries," Papers 312, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
    2. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2011. "The nexus between public expenditure and inflation in the Mediterranean countries," MPRA Paper 28493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tai Dang Nguyen, 2016. "Impact Of Government Spending On Inflation In Asian Emerging Economies: Evidence From India, China, And Indonesia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1171-1200, December.

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