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Longevity, Education, and Income: How Large is the Triangle?

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  • Hoyt Bleakley

Abstract

While health affects economic development and wellbeing through a variety of pathways, one commonly suggested mechanism is a "horizon" channel in which increased longevity induces additional education. A recent literature devotes much attention to how much education responds to increasing longevity, while this study asks instead what impact this specific channel has on wellbeing (welfare). I note that death is like a tax on human-capital investments, which suggests the use of a standard public-economics tool: triangles. I construct estimates of the triangle gain if education adjusts to lower adult mortality. Even for implausibly large responses of education to survival differences, almost all of today's low-human-development countries, if switched instantaneously to Japan's survival curve, would place a value on this channel of less than 15% of income. Calibrating the model with well-identified micro- and cohort-level studies, I find that the horizon triangle for the typical low-income country is instead less than a percent of lifetime income. Gains from increased survival in the 20th-century are similarly sized.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoyt Bleakley, 2018. "Longevity, Education, and Income: How Large is the Triangle?," NBER Working Papers 24247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24247
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Miguel Godinho de Matos & Francisco Lima & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2024. "Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2571-2611.
    2. Hoyt Bleakley & Bhanu Gupta, 2023. "Mind the Gap: Schooling, Informality, and Fiscal Externalities in Nepal," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 37(4), pages 659-674.
    3. Mariko J. Klasing & Petros Milionis, 2020. "The international epidemiological transition and the education gender gap," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 37-86, March.
    4. Trung V. Vu, 2023. "Life expectancy and human capital: New empirical evidence," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 395-412, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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