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Trade and Investment in the Global Economy

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  • James E. Anderson
  • Mario Larch
  • Yoto V. Yotov

Abstract

We develop a dynamic multi-country trade model with foreign direct investment (FDI) in the form of non-rival technology capital. The model nests structural gravity sub-systems for FDI and trade, with accumulation/decumulation of phyisical and technology capital in transition to the steady state. The empirical importance of the FDI channel is demonstrated comparing actual aggregate cross-section data for 89 countries in 2011 to a hypothetical world without FDI. The gains from FDI amount to 9\% of world's welfare and to 11% of world's trade, unevenly distributed among winners and losers. Net exports of FDI substitute for export trade in the results.

Suggested Citation

  • James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2017. "Trade and Investment in the Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 23757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23757
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    1. Anderson, James & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2015. "Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2015-2, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
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    12. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    13. Yoto Yotov & Mario Larch & James Anderson, 2015. "Growth and Trade: A Structural Estimation Framework," 2015 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Wei & Nie, Guangyu & Wang, Zi, 2020. "Trade, FDI, and Global Imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Jiazhen Ren & Apurbo Sarkar & Hong Li & Xiaojing Li, 2022. "Does the Host Country’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Restrictiveness Inhibit the Export Sophistication of the Home Country? Evidence from China’s Manufacturing Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    3. Kox, Henk L.M. & Rojas Romasgosa, Hugo, 2019. "Gravity estimations with FDI bilateral data: Potential FDI effects of deep preferential trade agreements," MPRA Paper 96318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Julia Bahlmann & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Environmental Policy Stringency and Foreign Direct Investment: New Insights from a Gravity Model Approach," EIIW Discussion paper disbei294, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    5. Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua & Francisco Requena, 2021. "Asylum Migration, Borders, and Terrorism in a Structural Gravity Model," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 146-158.
    6. Henk L. M. Kox & Hugo Rojas‐Romagosa, 2020. "How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), December.
    7. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    8. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Which are the long-run determinants of US outward FDI? Evidence using large long-memory panels," Working Papers 2210, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    9. Sébastien Miroudot & Davide Rigo, 2019. "Preferential Trade Agreements and Multinational Production," RSCAS Working Papers 2019/14, European University Institute.
    10. Anderson, James E. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Trade and investment in the global economy: A multi-country dynamic analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    11. Naoto Jinji & Yukiko Sawada & Xingyuan Zhang & Shoji Haruna, 2024. "Gravity for cross‐border licensing and the impact of deep trade agreements: Theory and evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 836-869, August.
    12. Fabian J. Baier, 2020. "Foreign Direct Investment and Tax: OECD Gravity Modelling in a World with International Financial Institutions," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 6(1), pages 45-72, October.
    13. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Restrictive Measures on Bilateral FDI in OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 101929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Aichele, Rahel & Heiland, Inga, 2018. "Where is the value added? Trade liberalization and production networks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 130-144.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fabian J. Baier, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment and Tax: OECD Gravity Modelling in a World with International Financial Institutions," EIIW Discussion paper disbei261, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    17. Amara Zongo, 2022. "The effects of restrictive measures on cross‐border investment: Evidence from OECD and emerging countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2428-2477, August.
    18. Naoto JINJI & Yukiko SAWADA & Xingyuan ZHANG & Shoji HARUNA, 2021. "Gravity for Cross-border Licensing and the Impact of Deep Trade Agreements: Theory and Evidence," Discussion papers e-20-008, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    19. Di Ubaldo, Mattia & Gasiorek, Michael, 2022. "Non-trade provisions in trade agreements and FDI," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Nashwan M. A. Saif & Jianping Ruan & Bojan Obrenovic, 2021. "Sustaining Trade during COVID-19 Pandemic: Establishing a Conceptual Model Including COVID-19 Impact," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    21. Mirkina, Irina, 2018. "FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 198-225.

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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