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Which Banks Recover From Large Adverse Shocks?

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  • Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti
  • Anil Kashyap

Abstract

We analyze the fate of 110 Italian banks that experienced abrupt drops in profitability, from which about 1/3 recover. Recovery depends primarily on post-shock adjustments made by the banks, particularly to their loan portfolios. Matched bank-borrower data shows that recovering banks are significantly more aggressive in managing their riskiest clients. The risk management differences are consistent with some banks cutting credit to very riskiest clients while others appear to be gambling for reclamation by continuing to extend credit to high risk borrowers.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Anil Kashyap, 2017. "Which Banks Recover From Large Adverse Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 23654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23654
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    2. Bongini, Paola & Cucinelli, Doriana & Battista, Maria Luisa Di & Nieri, Laura, 2019. "Profitability shocks and recovery in time of crisis evidence from European banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 233-239.
    3. Laura Blattner & Luisa Farinha & Francisca Rebelo, 2017. "When Losses Turn Into Loans: The Cost of Undercapitalized Banks," 2017 Papers pbl215, Job Market Papers.
    4. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Mr. Thierry Tressel & Ms. Rima A Turk, 2018. "Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2018/099, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Kirti, Divya, 2024. "When gambling for resurrection is too risky," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Diana Bonfim & Leonor Queiró & Luísa Farinha, 2021. "Heterogeneity in loan pricing: the role of bank capital," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Isabel Strecker, 2024. "Gambling bank behaviour, incentive mechanism, and sanctions: A two-stage model," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(2), pages 197-208, June.
    8. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1168, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Farina, Tatiana & Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Pelizzon, Loriana & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2019. "What are the main factors for the subdued profitability of significant banks in the Banking Union, and is the ECB's supervisory response conclusive and exhaustive? A critical assessment of the 2018 SS," SAFE White Paper Series 65, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Alfaro, Laura & Asis, Gonzalo & Chari, Anusha & Panizza, Ugo, 2019. "Corporate debt, firm size and financial fragility in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-19.
    11. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Francesco Manaresi & Mr. Nicola Pierri, 2019. "Credit Supply and Productivity Growth," IMF Working Papers 2019/107, International Monetary Fund.

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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