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Asset Pricing in the Quest for the New El Dorado

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  • Daniel Andrei
  • Bruce I. Carlin

Abstract

Creative destruction not only involves bringing new technology to market, it imposes higher risk on the future of existing assets. We characterize the asset pricing implications of creative destruction when investors compete for market share. Compared to the social optimum, the quest for oligopoly rents leads to over-investment in uncertain projects, spikes in asset prices and risk premia, and an aftermath in which prices fall steeply as uncertainty resolves. These pricing patterns resemble a bubble ex post, but arise solely from competitive behavior and do not require information asymmetry, behavioral biases, or financial frictions. Our analysis yields novel empirical predictions and we discuss how financial innovation might be used to predict bubbles ex ante.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Andrei & Bruce I. Carlin, 2017. "Asset Pricing in the Quest for the New El Dorado," NBER Working Papers 23455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23455
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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