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Volatility Managed Portfolios

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  • Alan Moreira
  • Tyler Muir

Abstract

Managed portfolios that take less risk when volatility is high produce large alphas, substantially increase factor Sharpe ratios, and produce large utility gains for mean-variance investors. We document this for the market, value, momentum, profitability, return on equity, and investment factors in equities, as well as the currency carry trade. Volatility timing increases Sharpe ratios because changes in factor volatilities are not offset by proportional changes in expected returns. Our strategy is contrary to conventional wisdom because it takes relatively less risk in recessions and crises yet still earns high average returns. This rules out typical risk-based explanations and is a challenge to structural models of time-varying expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2016. "Volatility Managed Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 22208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22208
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Hoopes & Patrick Langetieg & Stefan Nagel & Daniel Reck & Joel Slemrod & Bryan Stuart, 2016. "Who Sold During the Crash of 2008-9? Evidence from Tax-Return Data on Daily Sales of Stock," NBER Working Papers 22209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Wang, Zijun & Khan, M. Moosa, 2017. "Market states and the risk-return tradeoff," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 314-327.
    3. Maria Elena De Giuli & Dennis Montagna & Federica Naldi & Alessandra Tanda, 2019. "Enhance and Protect Portfolio Returns: A Dynamic Put Spread Optimization," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 1-66, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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