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Brazil's Tropical Plan

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  • Eliana A. Cardoso
  • Rudiger Dornbusch

Abstract

This paper highlights the institutional features of the inflation process and contrasts two stabilization efforts in 1964-66 and in 1986.The inflation process in Brazil is highly institutional. It does not resemble hyperinflations where pricing and wage setting are geared to the exchange rate by the hour, making it possible to stop inflation by simply containing money creation and fixing the exchange rate. The two stabilization programs demonstrate that an incomes policy is an essential ingredient to non-recessionary stabilization. But they also show that demand restraint is inevitable if disinflation is to be viable. The 1964 program was gradualist and two-handed, relying on the supply side on wage repression. The 1986 plan was a heterodox shock treatment centered around an uncompromising price freeze and paying insufficient attention to the need for fiscal restraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliana A. Cardoso & Rudiger Dornbusch, 1987. "Brazil's Tropical Plan," NBER Working Papers 2142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-113, May.
    2. Rudiger Dornbusch & Mario Henrique Simonsen, 1987. "Inflation Stabilization with Incomes Policy Support: A Review of the Experience in Argentina, Brazil and Israel," NBER Working Papers 2153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. David H. Howard, 1987. "Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic stabilization in a developing country," International Finance Discussion Papers 314, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Durevall, Dick, 1999. "Inertial inflation, indexation and price stickiness: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 407-421, December.
    3. A. Saad-Filho, 1998. "Currency Stabilisation under Conditions of International Capital Mobility: The Case of Brazil," CIBS Research Papers in International Business 13-98, London South Bank University CIBS.
    4. Solimano, Andres, 1989. "Inflation and the costs of stabilization : country experiences, conceptual issues, and policy lessons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 226, The World Bank.
    5. Albuquerque, Pedro H. & Gouvea, Solange, 2009. "Canaries and vultures: A quantitative history of monetary mismanagement in Brazil," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 479-495, April.
    6. Kiguel, Miguel A. & Liviatan, Nissan, 1989. "The old and the new in heterodox stabilization programs : lessons from the 1960s and the 1980s," Policy Research Working Paper Series 323, The World Bank.
    7. Eliana Cardoso, 1991. "From Inertia to Megainflation: Brazil in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 3585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kiguel, Miguel A. & Liviatan, Nissan, 1991. "Lessons from the heterodox stabilization programs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 671, The World Bank.
    9. Rudiger Dornbusch & Juan Carlos de Pablo, 1990. "References," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 2: Country Studies—Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, pages 150-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kiguel, Miguel & Liviatan, Nissan, 1990. "The inflation - stabilization cycles in Argentina and Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 443, The World Bank.

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