IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/19391.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Roger Farmer

Abstract

This paper studies the connection between the stock market and the unemployment rate. I establish three facts. First, the log of the real value of the S&P 500 and the log of a logistic transformation of the unemployment rate are non-stationary cointegrated series. Second, the stock market Granger causes the unemployment rate. Third, the connection between changes in the real value of the stock market and changes in the unemployment rate has remained structurally stable over seventy years. My results establish that the fall in the stock market in the autumn of 2008 provides a plausible causal explanation for the magnitude of the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Farmer, 2013. "The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 19391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19391
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19391.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5571 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S. Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 237-311.
    3. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    4. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5571 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S, 1992. "Macroeconomic Shocks in a Dynamized Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 889-900, September.
    6. Phelps, Edmund S, 1992. "A Review of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1476-1490, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farmer, Roger E.A., 2012. "The stock market crash of 2008 caused the Great Recession: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 693-707.
    2. Roger Farmer, 2012. "The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession," 2012 Meeting Papers 145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Edmund S. Phelps, 2008. "Macroeconomics for a Modern Economy," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 52(1), pages 3-22, March.
    4. Stephen Nickell, 2003. "A Picture of European Unemployment: Success and Failure," CEP Discussion Papers dp0577, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Monastiriotis, Vassilis, 2006. "Macro-determinants of UK regional unemployment and the role of employment flexibility," MPRA Paper 44, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Zoega Gylfi, 2010. "The Financial Crisis: Joblessness and Investmentlessness," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-28, October.
    7. Nickell, Stephen & Nunziata, Luca & Ochel, Wolfgang & Quintini, Glenda, 2001. "The Beveridge curve, unemployment and wages in the OECD from the 1960s to the 1990s - preliminary version," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20113, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S. Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 237-311.
    9. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2016. "Financial market impact on the real economy: An assessment of asymmetries and volatility linkages between the stock market and unemployment rate," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-7.
    10. Gylfi Zoega, 2012. "Employment and asset prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3343-3355, September.
    11. Stephen Nickell, 2003. "Labour Market Institutions and Unemployment in OECD Countries," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(2), pages 13-26, October.
    12. Baig, Ahmed S. & Blau, Benjamin M. & Sabah, Nasim, 2021. "Free trade and the efficiency of financial markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    13. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    14. Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S., 2007. "A structuralist model of the small open economy in the short, medium and long run," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-254, June.
    15. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    17. João Ricardo Faria, 2004. "The Effects Of Taxes On Labour In A Dynamic Efficiency Wage Model," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 286-297, September.
    18. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    19. repec:ces:ifodic:v:1:y:2003:i:2:p:14567946 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Antonio Rodriguez-Gil, 2018. "Hysteresis and labour market institutions. Evidence from the UK and the Netherlands," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1985-2025, December.
    21. Edmund S. Phelps, 1998. "Designing a Capitalist Economy for Fast Growth and High Employment in Today's Globalized World Economy," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 87-103, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19391. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.