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Social Security: A Financial Appraisal Across and Within Generations

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  • Michael J. Boskin
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Douglas J. Puffert
  • John B. Shoven

Abstract

This paper computes the expected present value of Social Security retirement benefits and taxes for households of different marital circumstances, incomes, and age cohorts. Also computed are the net gain or loss from participation in the system and the expected internal rate of return it offers various participants. The paper calculates the marginal linkage between benefits and contributions, and also examines how the age of entry into the covered workforce affects the participant. All computations are made for the 1985 Social Security and income tax laws. The general results are that Social Security offers vastly different terms to households in different circumstances. The net gain or loss varies by $200,000 and the real internal rate of return on contributions ranges from negative numbers to 6.6% for households of different ages, income levels, and marital status. These differences are far greater than the widely debated distributional affects of relevant income tax alternatives. We also find that there is a great deal of variance in the marginal linkage of benefits and taxes with many households facing a situation where the present value of benefits increases from 0 to 30 cents per extra dollar of taxes paid.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Boskin & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Douglas J. Puffert & John B. Shoven, 1986. "Social Security: A Financial Appraisal Across and Within Generations," NBER Working Papers 1891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1891
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael J. Boskin & Marcy Avrin & Kenneth Cone, 1980. "Modeling Alternative Solutions to the Long-Run Social Security Funding Problem," NBER Working Papers 0583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    3. Boskin, Michael J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Shoven, John B., 1985. "Personal Security Accounts: A Proposal for Fundamental Social Security Reform," CEPR Publications 244431, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1985. "The "new monetary economics," fiscal issues, and unemployment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Michael D. Hurd & John B. Shoven, 1985. "The Distributional Impact of Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions, Labor, and Individual Choice, pages 193-222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Anthony Pellechio & Gordon Goodfellow, 1983. "Individual Gains and Losses from Social Security before and after the 1983 Amendments," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 417-442, Fall.
    7. Boskin, Michael J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1985. "Public debt and United States saving: A new test of the neutrality hypothesis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 55-86, January.
    8. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1985. "The Efficiency Gains from Social Security Benefit - Tax Linkage," NBER Working Papers 1645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael J. Boskin & Marcy Avrin & Kenneth Cone, 1983. "Modeling Alternative Solutions to the Long-Run Social Security Funding Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 211-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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