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The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China

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  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

This paper analyzes the consequences of the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi for the global monetary system and its possible ascension to reserve currency status. In an unstable and financially integrated world, governments' precautionary demand for reserve assets is likely to increase. But the world then risks a third crisis of the global reserve system, another re-run of the Triffin paradox, with an ever-growing emerging-world insurance demand loaded onto a small group of ever more strained net debt suppliers. Two ways to avoid this outcome would entail either expanding the supply of credible reserve liquidity to include some large emerging-market providers, or finding ways to manage emerging-market risks so as to moderate the perceived need for insurance, and China would have to loom large in both solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China," NBER Working Papers 18771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18771
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    Cited by:

    1. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Reserve accumulation and financial crises: From individual protection to systemic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 126-144.
    2. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Current account balance and dollar standard: Exploring the linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 65-94.
    3. Florian Brugger, 2016. "Asias Reserve Accumulation: Part of a New Paradigm," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(8), pages 457-476, August.
    4. Batten, Jonathan A. & Szilagyi, Peter G., 2016. "The internationalisation of the RMB: New starts, jumps and tipping points," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    5. repec:grz:wpsses:2015-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2019. "The road to currency internationalization: Global perspectives and chinese experience," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 73-101.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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