IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18680.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Informed Trading and Expected Returns

Author

Listed:
  • James J. Choi
  • Li Jin
  • Hongjun Yan

Abstract

Does information asymmetry affect the cross-section of expected stock returns? We explore this question using representative portfolio holdings data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We show that institutional investors have a strong information advantage, and that past aggressiveness of institutional trading in a stock positively predicts institutions' future information advantage in this stock. Sorting stocks on this predictor and controlling for other correlates of expected returns, we find that the top quintile's average annualized return in the next month is 10.8% higher than the bottom quintile's, indicating that information asymmetry increases expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • James J. Choi & Li Jin & Hongjun Yan, 2013. "Informed Trading and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 18680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18680
    Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18680.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
    2. Paul A. Gompers & Andrew Metrick, 2001. "Institutional Investors and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 229-259.
    3. Mohanram, Partha & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2009. "Is PIN priced risk?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 226-243, June.
    4. Bryan Kelly & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2012. "Testing Asymmetric-Information Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1366-1413.
    5. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    6. Henk Berkman & Paul D. Koch & P. Joakim Westerholm, 2014. "Informed Trading through the Accounts of Children," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 363-404, February.
    7. Easley, David & Hvidkjaer, Soeren & O’Hara, Maureen, 2010. "Factoring Information into Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 293-309, April.
    8. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    9. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Adverse selection and bid-ask spreads: Evidence from closed-end funds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 121-149, April.
    10. Richard A. Lambert & Christian Leuz & Robert E. Verrecchia, 2011. "Information Asymmetry, Information Precision, and the Cost of Capital," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29.
    11. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    12. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Liquidity and Asset Returns Under Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1339-1365.
    13. Aslan, Hadiye & Easley, David & Hvidkjaer, Soeren & O'Hara, Maureen, 2011. "The characteristics of informed trading: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 782-801.
    14. Haugen, Robert A. & Baker, Nardin L., 1996. "Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 401-439, July.
    15. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2723-2753, October.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1553-1583 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    19. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    20. Frazzini, Andrea & Lamont, Owen A., 2008. "Dumb money: Mutual fund flows and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 299-322, May.
    21. Wei Xiong & Jialin Yu, 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble," Working Papers 1398, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    22. David C. Wyld, 2010. "ASecond Lifefor organizations?: managing in the new, virtual world," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(6), pages 529-562, May.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    24. Nicolae Gârleanu, 2004. "Adverse Selection and the Required Return," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 643-665.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Kurlat & Johannes Stroebel, 2015. "Testing for Information Asymmetries in Real Estate Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(8), pages 2429-2461.
    2. Chen, Xing & Wu, Chongfeng, 2022. "Retail investor attention and information asymmetry: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aslan, Hadiye & Easley, David & Hvidkjaer, Soeren & O'Hara, Maureen, 2011. "The characteristics of informed trading: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 782-801.
    2. Yan, Yuxing & Zhang, Shaojun, 2014. "Quality of PIN estimates and the PIN-return relationship," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 137-149.
    3. Tarun Chordia & Jianfeng Hu & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Qing Tong, 2019. "Order Flow Volatility and Equity Costs of Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1520-1551, April.
    4. Mohamed Ayadi & Hatem Ben-Ameur & Skander Lazrak & Yue Wang, 2013. "Canadian Investors and the Discount on Closed-End Funds," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 69-98, February.
    5. Yang, Yung Chiang & Zhang, Bohui & Zhang, Chu, 2020. "Is information risk priced? Evidence from abnormal idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 528-554.
    6. Michael J. Brennan & Sahn-Wook Huh & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Informed Trading on the Cost of Equity Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2460-2480, September.
    7. Hoang Luong Luong & Huong Giang (Lily) Nguyen & Xiangkang Yin, 2015. "When Is a Firm's Information Asymmetry Priced? The Role of Institutional Investors," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 55-88, March.
    8. Constantinos Antoniou & John A. Doukas & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2016. "Investor Sentiment, Beta, and the Cost of Equity Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 347-367, February.
    9. Gordon, Narelle & Watts, Edward & Wu, Qiongbing, 2014. "Information attributes, information asymmetry and industry sector returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 156-175.
    10. Kang, Moonsoo, 2010. "Probability of information-based trading and the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2985-2994, December.
    11. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    12. Aragon, George O. & Kim, Min S., 2023. "Fire sale risk and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 578-609.
    13. Kim, Jinyong & Kim, Yongsik, 2023. "Which stock price component drives the Amihud illiquidity premium?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2010. "The Cross†Section of Expected Stock Returns: What Have We Learnt from the Past Twenty†Five Years of Research?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-42, January.
    15. J. Barry Lin & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2017. "Corporate derivatives use policy and information environment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 159-194, July.
    16. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu & Heqing Zhu, 2014. ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 20592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jiang, Hao, 2010. "Institutional investors, intangible information, and the book-to-market effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 98-126, April.
    18. Fu, Fangjian, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 24-37, January.
    19. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    20. Shai Levi & Xiao-Jun Zhang, 2015. "Do Temporary Increases in Information Asymmetry Affect the Cost of Equity?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 354-371, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18680. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.