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Securitization in the 1920's

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  • William N. Goetzmann
  • Frank Newman

Abstract

This paper quantifies the scale and scope of the commercial real estate mortgage bond market in the period surrounding the 1920s in an attempt to better understand the role of retail mortgage debt in early urban development. In particular, this paper quantifies the size of the market, identifies risk factors affecting the coupon yield spread over Treasuries and utilizes a unique data set to construct a commercial mortgage price index over the period 1926-1935. A substantial retail appetite for real estate securities during this period may have significantly contributed to a real construction boom, but overly optimistic speculation in these securities may have led to overbuilding. The rapid deterioration of these securities and a near complete drop in issuance show, ex post, that investors were overconfident in building fundamentals during the boom years. The breakdown in the value of real estate securities as collateral assets preceded the crash of 1929 and may have contributed to the fall of asset prices more generally.

Suggested Citation

  • William N. Goetzmann & Frank Newman, 2010. "Securitization in the 1920's," NBER Working Papers 15650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15650
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David C. Wheelock, 2008. "The federal response to home mortgage distress: lessons from the Great Depression," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 133-148.
    2. Eugene N. White, 2014. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 115-158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rothberg, James P & Nothaft, Frank E & Gabriel, Stuart A, 1989. "On the Determinants of Yield Spreads between Mortgage Pass-Through and Treasury Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 301-315, December.
    4. Brian A. Maris & William Segal, 2002. "Analysis of Yield Spreads on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(3), pages 235-252.
    5. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng & Jacqueline Yen, 2012. "The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 36-66, January.
    6. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam B. Ashcraft & Tyler Wiggers, 2012. "Defaults and losses on commercial real estate bonds during the Great Depression era," Staff Reports 544, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Timothy J. Riddiough, 2011. "Can Securitization Work? Economic, Structural and Policy Considerations," Working Papers 242011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Efraim Benmelech & Nittai K. Bergman, 2018. "Credit Market Freezes," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 493-526.
    4. Kenneth Snowden & Eugene N. White & Price Fishback, 2014. "Introduction to "Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective"," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 1-13, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Tom Emmerling & Crocker Liu & Yildiray Yildirim, 2017. "The Hybrid Nature of Real Estate Trusts," ERES eres2017_370, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    6. Kenneth Snowden, 2014. "A Historiography of Early NBER Housing and Mortgage Research," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 15-36, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Andra Ghent & Rossen Valkanov, 2016. "Comparing Securitized and Balance Sheet Loans: Size Matters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(10), pages 2784-2803, October.
    8. Edward L. Glaeser, 2013. "A Nation Of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation And American History," NBER Working Papers 18825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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