IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/15459.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Learnability Save New-Keynesian Models?

Author

Listed:
  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

Bennett McCallum (2009), applying Evans and Honkapohja's (2001) results, argues that "learnability" can save New-Keynesian models from their indeterminacies. He claims the unique bounded equilibrium is learnable, and the explosive equilibria are not. However, he assumes that agents can directly observe the monetary policy shock. Reversing this assumption, I find the opposite result: the bounded equilibrium is not learnable and the unbounded equilibria are learnable. More generally, I argue that a threat by the Fed to move to an "unlearnable" equilibrium for all but one value of inflation is a poor foundation for choosing the bounded equilibrium of a New-Keynesian model.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Cochrane, 2009. "Can Learnability Save New-Keynesian Models?," NBER Working Papers 15459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15459
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15459.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T., 2009. "Inflation determination with Taylor rules: Is new-Keynesian analysis critically flawed?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1101-1108, November.
    3. Andrew Atkeson & Varadarajan V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2010. "Sophisticated Monetary Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 47-89.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 113-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2021. "Determinacy without the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 28881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fernando M. Duarte & Anna Zabai, 2015. "An interest rate rule to uniquely implement the optimal equilibrium in a liquidity trap," Staff Reports 745, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Fernando M. Duarte, 2016. "How to escape a liquidity trap with interest rate rules," Staff Reports 776, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2015. "Can the Learnability Criterion Ensure Determinacy in New Keynesian Models?," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(1), pages 43-61, June.
    6. Mazali, Antonio Alberto & Divino, Jose Angelo, 2010. "Real Wage Rigidity and the New Phillips Curve: The Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    7. Cochrane, John H., 2017. "The new-Keynesian liquidity trap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-63.
    8. John H. Cochrane, 2013. "The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 19476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Determining optimal monetary speed limits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 269-271.
    10. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2021. "Managing self-organization of expectations through monetary policy: A macro experiment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-186.
    11. Bassetto, Marco & Phelan, Christopher, 2015. "Speculative runs on interest rate pegs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 99-114.
    12. Jeffrey Campbell & Jacob Weber, 2021. "Discretion rather than rules: Equilibrium uniqueness and forward guidance with inconsistent optimal plans," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 243-254, July.
    13. Michael Kiley, 2016. "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 1-15, July.
    14. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    15. Gaballo, Gaetano & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "Myopic fiscal objectives and long-Run monetary efficiency," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-17.
    16. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    17. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    18. Loisel, Olivier, 2021. "The implementation of stabilization policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), May.
    19. Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2011. "Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A Role for Money after All?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 211-229, June.
    20. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 362011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.