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Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Glode
  • Burton Hollifield
  • Marcin Kacperczyk
  • Shimon Kogan

Abstract

We provide new empirical evidence suggesting that the marginal investor in mutual funds behaves differently across market conditions. If the marginal investor allocates capital across mutual funds rationally, then the relative performance of funds should be unpredictable. We find however that relative fund performance is predictable after periods of high market returns but not after periods of low market returns. The asymmetric predictability in performance we document cannot be explained by time-varying differences in transaction costs or style exposures between funds, or by sample selection. Consistent with the hypothesis that the asymmetric predictability in performance may be driven by unsophisticated investors' mistakes when allocating capital, we document that performance predictability is more pronounced for funds that cater to retail investors than for funds that cater to institutional investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Glode & Burton Hollifield & Marcin Kacperczyk & Shimon Kogan, 2009. "Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," NBER Working Papers 15038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15038
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    Cited by:

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    2. Glode, Vincent, 2011. "Why mutual funds "underperform"," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 546-559, March.
    3. Salganik, G., 2010. "Essays on investment flows of hedge fund and mutual fund investors," Other publications TiSEM e5953fbe-064e-4647-9353-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Sebastian Müller & Martin Weber, 2014. "Evaluating the Rating of Stiftung Warentest: How Good Are Mutual Fund Ratings and Can They Be Improved?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 207-235, March.
    5. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Tolikas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Hedge fund performance persistence under different business cycles and stock market regimes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Badrinath, S.G. & Gubellini, S., 2011. "On the characteristics and performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1762-1776, July.
    7. Zhou, Haoyong & He, Fan & Wang, Yangbo, 2017. "Did family firms perform better during the financial crisis? New insights from the S&P 500 firms," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 88-103.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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