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Adjusting Government Policies for Age Inflation

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  • John B. Shoven

Abstract

Government policies that are based on age do not adjust to the fact that a given age is associated with a higher remaining life expectancy and lower mortality risk relative to earlier time periods due to improvements in mortality. We examine four possible methods for adjusting the eligibility ages for Social Security, Medicare, and Individual Retirement Accounts to determine what eligibility ages would be today and in 2050 if adjustments for mortality improvement were taken into account. We find that historical adjustment of eligibility ages for age inflation would have increased ages of eligibility by approximately 0.15 years annually. Failure to adjust for mortality improvement implies the percent of the population eligible to receive full Social Security benefits and Medicare will increase substantially relative to the share eligible under a policy of age adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Shoven, 2008. "Adjusting Government Policies for Age Inflation," NBER Working Papers 14231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14231
    Note: AG PE
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    1. Victor R. Fuchs, 2018. "“Though Much Is Taken”: Reflections on Aging, Health, and Medical Care," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Health Economics and Policy Selected Writings by Victor Fuchs, chapter 33, pages 403-424, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreea Claudia ȘERBAN & Mirela Ionela ACELEANU, 2015. "Current Demographic Trends – A New Challenge for the Labour Market," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 309-320, Winter.
    2. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Zou, Tieding, 2017. "延迟退休的制约因素、政策效果与动态研究方法评价 [Restriction, Policy Effect and Dynamic Research Method to Delay Retirement]," MPRA Paper 85556, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jan 2018.
    4. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:309-320 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. W. Heeringa & A. Bovenberg, 2012. "Generational Impacts of Demographic Changes in Pay-as-you-go Pension Schemes: Measurement and Application to the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Walsh, John R., 2009. "Pension Policy: New Evidence on Key Issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS14.
    7. Jin Hu & Peter-Josef Stauvermann & Surya Nepal & Yuanhua Zhou, 2023. "Can the Policy of Increasing Retirement Age Raise Pension Revenue in China—A Case Study of Anhui Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Social Policy and Population Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP., 2011. "Asia-Pacific Population Journal Volume 26, No. 3," Asia-Pacific Population Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 26(3), pages 1-84, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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