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Why Do Real and Nominal Inventory-Sales Ratios Have Different Trends

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  • Valerie A. Ramey
  • Daniel J. Vine

Abstract

This note explains the diverging trends between real and nominal aggregate inventory-sales ratios. The combined effect of two features of the data explains the divergence. First, while aggregate sales include both goods and services, inventories include only goods. Second, there has been a strong secular decrease in the relative price of goods. The combination of these two factors causes the real and nominal aggregate inventory-sales ratios to have different trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Why Do Real and Nominal Inventory-Sales Ratios Have Different Trends," NBER Working Papers 10703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10703
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karl Whelan, 2000. "A guide to the use of chain aggregated NIPA data," Open Access publications 10197/253, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    2. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 183-202.
    3. Irvine, F. Owen, 2003. "Long term trends in US inventory to sales ratios," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-39, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2004. "Modeling Inventories Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 10652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    4. Dai Tiantian & Liu Xiangbo & Sun Wei, 2020. "The effects of monetary policy on input inventories," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-34, January.
    5. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2013. "Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 249-276.
    6. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
    7. Bivin, David G., 2008. "Production management, output volatility, and good luck," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2118-2136, July.
    8. Yongseung Jung & Tack Yun, 2013. "Inventory Investment and the Empirical Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 201-231, February.
    9. Elias Sanidas, 2014. "How SMEs or larger firms and industries’ productivity respond to technology: a panel data study," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 64(1), pages 16-28, January-M.
    10. Jung, YongSeung & Yun, Tack, 2005. "Monetary Policy Shocks, Inventory Dynamics, and Price-Setting Behavior," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3sf4q6nn, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    11. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 10384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    13. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2016. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 699-728, June.
    14. Adam Fein, 2004. "The Myth of Decline: A New Perspective on the Supply Chain and Changing Inventory-Sales Ratios," Working Papers 04-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, revised Feb 2005.
    15. Parijat Maitra & Naveen Srinivasan, 2020. "Inventory Cycles and Business Cycles – Has the relationship lost its importance over the years: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach using U.S. Data," Working Papers 2020-198, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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