IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0704.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Debt and Economic Activity in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin M. Friedman

Abstract

This paper documents a long-standing stability in the relationship between outstanding debt and economic activity in the United States, and explores the implications for capital formation of several hypotheses that could explain this observed phenomenon. The aggregate of outstanding credit liabilities of all nonfinancial borrowers in the United States bears as close a relationship to U.S. non- financial economic activity as do the more familiar asset aggregates like the money stock (however measured) or the monetary base. This stability in the debt-to-income relationship reflects the net outcome of pronounced but offsetting movements of the public and private components of the total debt aggregate. Three different hypotheses provide potential explanations for this phenomenon. Two of these, one emphasizing taxpayers' actions and one based on credit market borrowing constraints, carry the implication that increases in government debt outstanding associated with financing budget deficits crowd out private financing and hence private capital formation. The third hypothesis, which emphasizes the portfolio preferences of lenders, implies that increased government financing will not crowd out private capital formation but will cause the private sector to shift from debt to equity financing.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "Debt and Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Working Papers 0704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0704
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0704.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-640, June.
    3. Stephen M. Goldfeld & Alan S. Blinder, 1972. "Some Implications of Endogenous Stabilization Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(3), pages 585-644.
    4. Smith, Gary, 1975. "Pitfalls in Financial Model Building: A Clarification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 510-516, June.
    5. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out Or Crowding In? The Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," NBER Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Benjamin M. Friedman & Milton Friedman & A. W. Clausen, 1980. "Postwar Changes in the American Financial Markets," NBER Chapters, in: The American Economy in Transition, pages 9-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    8. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Postwar Changes in the American Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David, Paul A & Scadding, John L, 1974. "Private Savings: Ultrarationality, Aggregation, and "Denison's Law."," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 225-249, Part I, M.
    10. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "The Relative Stability of Money and Credit "Velocities" in the United States: Evidence and Some Speculations," NBER Working Papers 0645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bayer, Christian, 2006. "Investment dynamics with fixed capital adjustment cost and capital market imperfections," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1909-1947, November.
    2. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Debt problems and macroeconomic policies," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 165-208.
    3. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    4. Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Jurgen, 2001. "The Konstanz Seminar on monetary theory and policy at 30," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 641-664, September.
    5. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    6. Calomiris, Charles W & Hubbard, R Glenn, 1990. "Firm Heterogeneity, Internal Finance, and 'Credit Rationing.'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 90-104, March.
    7. André Babeau, 1983. "Le rapport macro-économique du patrimoine au revenu des ménages," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(1), pages 64-123.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    9. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1983. "Managing the U.S. Government Deficit in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 1209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1987. "New Directions in the Relationship Between Public and Private Debt," NBER Working Papers 2186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2002. "Bank credit in the transmission of monetary policy: A critical review of the issues and evidence," MPRA Paper 19816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Robert A. Taggart, Jr., 1984. "Have U.S. Corporations Grown Financially Weak?," NBER Working Papers 1523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1982. "Debt and Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The Changing Roles of Debt and Equity in Financing U.S. Capital Formation, pages 91-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "The Relative Stability of Money and Credit "Velocities" in the United States: Evidence and Some Speculations," NBER Working Papers 0645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Schüder, Stefan, 2011. "Monetary policy trade-offs in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," MPRA Paper 32019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Schüder, Stefan, 2014. "Expansive monetary policy in a portfolio model with endogenous asset supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 239-252.
    5. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    6. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 585-631, November.
    7. G. C. Lim & Stuart S. Kells, 1995. "Portfolio Implications of an Equity Rain in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(4), pages 367-378, December.
    8. Jagannath Mallick, 2019. "The effects of government investment shocks on private investment: Empirical evidence from the developing economy," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 291-316, December.
    9. V. Vance Roley, 1980. "The Effect of Federal Debt Management Policy on Corporate Bond and Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 0586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. M. O. Odedokun, 1997. "Relative effects of public versus private investment spending on economic efficiency and growth in developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1325-1336.
    11. Lehment, Harmen, 1983. "The macroeconomic implications of public sector deficits," Kiel Working Papers 168, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2004. "Deficit Financing in LDCs: Evidence From South Asia," Economics Working Papers wp04-18, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    13. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "The Roles of Money and Credit in Macroeconomic Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Linh My Tran & Chi Hong Mai & Phuoc Huu Le & Chi Linh Vu Bui & Linh Viet Phuong Nguyen & Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Cash Flow and Corporate Investment: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, March.
    15. BOUNADER, Lahcen, 2016. "Is there a crowding-out effect in the Moroccan context ? Evidence from structural VAR Analysis," MPRA Paper 69275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    17. Jagjit S. Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The ties that bind: monetary policy and government debt management," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 548-581, AUTUMN.
    18. Gary Koop & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2013. "On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 300-314, July.
    19. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2015. "Learning and Model Validation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 45-82.
    20. G. J. Santoni, 1987. "Changes in wealth and the velocity of money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 16-26.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.