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Sterling and the External Balance

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  • Rudiger Dornbusch
  • Stanley Fischer

Abstract

This paper analyzes the behavior of the current account and the exchange rate in the British economy during the 1970's, and discusses the outlook, as influenced by the availability of oil revenues, for exchange rate developments during the 1980's.Both trade and exchange rate behavior are affected by, and in turn affect, general macroeconomic developments and policy problems. In the short term, the major macroeconomic problems of the British economy are its high rates of inflation and unemployment. Over the long term, the underlying problem for the British economy is its slow productivity growth relative to the major OECD economies (except that of the United States).Two major themes permeate this paper. First, the accepted laws of economics continue to work in the United Kingdom; for example, low domestic demand and increased British competitiveness improve the balance of payments and slow the fall of the exchange rate. Second, Britain's achievement of macroeconomic goals depends upon the behavior of both nominal and real wages. The inflation rate will remain low only if the rate of change of nominal wages does; full employment with stable prices and current account balance will be achieved only if real wage growth is restrained or productivity growth increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1979. "Sterling and the External Balance," NBER Working Papers 0327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Posner, Michael V., 1978. "Problems of the British economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-32, January.
    2. Humphrey, David H, 1976. "Disaggregated Import Functions for the UK, West Germany and France," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 38(4), pages 281-298, November.
    3. repec:bla:econom:v:43:y:1976:i:172:p:335-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ball, R J & Burns, T, 1976. "The Inflationary Mechanism in the U.K. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 467-484, September.
    5. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1978. "Public policies in open economies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-4, January.
    6. Laidler, David E W, 1976. "Inflation in Britain: A Monetarist Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 485-500, September.
    7. Fetherston, Martin J. & Godley, Wynne A. H., 1978. ""New Cambridge" macroeconomics and global monetarism : Some issues in the conduct of U.K. economic policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 33-65, January.
    8. Ball, R J & Burns, T & Laury, J S E, 1977. "The Role of Exchange Rate Changes in Balance of Payments Adjustment: The United Kingdom Case," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 87(345), pages 1-29, March.
    9. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jackson, Peter, 1983. "Fiscal Containment and Local Government Finance in the U.K," Working Paper Series 89, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.

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