IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0216.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Evaluation of the Role of Factor Markets and Intensities in the Social Security Crisis: A Progress Report

Author

Listed:
  • John B. Shoven

Abstract

This paper begins to evaluate some of the complicated set of economic adjustments which are going to occur as the uneven population age structure of the U.S. matures. It argues that in the 2012-2035 "crunch" years for the social security system not only will workers be scarce relative to retirees, but they will also be scarce relative to capital. This fact will tend to raise the wage-rentals ratio and partially alleviate the problems of a retirement plan supported by taxes on labor income. On the other hand, during this period the large number of elderly persons will be attempting to dis-save by selling their assets to the relatively few younger, accumulating families. Such an imbalance will be equilibrated only by depressed asset prices. The conclusion, thus, is that the problems of the social security system may be partially alleviated by factor price adjustments, while private funded pension plans will have a problem of their own, namely lower than anticipated liquidation values.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Shoven, 1977. "An Evaluation of the Role of Factor Markets and Intensities in the Social Security Crisis: A Progress Report," NBER Working Papers 0216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0216
    Note: LS PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0216.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles L. Ballard & Don Fullerton & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1985. "General Equilibrium Analysis of Tax Policies," NBER Chapters, in: A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation, pages 6-24, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    3. Feldstein, Martin S, 1976. "Social Security and Saving: The Extended Life Cycle Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 77-86, May.
    4. John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1973. "General Equilibrium with Taxes: A Computational Procedure and an Existence Proof," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 40(4), pages 475-489.
    5. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    6. Michael J. Boskin, 1976. "Taxation, Saving and the Rate of Interest," NBER Working Papers 0135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hua Chai & Mr. Jun I Kim, 2018. "Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance," IMF Working Papers 2018/265, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Campbell, John Y. & Nosbusch, Yves, 2007. "Intergenerational risksharing and equilibrium asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2251-2268, November.
    3. Eladio Febrero & Maria-Angeles Cadarso, 2006. "Pay-As-You-Go versus funded systems. Some critical considerations," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 335-357.
    4. Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2006. "Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets are Incomplete!?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 737-755, June.
    5. Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1116-1125, September.
    6. Kruse, Agneta, 2002. "Ageing Populations and Intergenerational Risk-sharing in PAYG Pension Schemes," Working Papers 2002:18, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    7. Tullio Jappelli, 2005. "The life-cycle hypothesis, fiscal policy and social security," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 173-186.
    8. Rousseau, Henri-Paul, 1978. "L’incidence de la rente publique sur l’épargne privée : un survol de la littérature théorique et empirique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 54(4), pages 463-499, octobre.
    9. Lopez Murphy, Pablo & Musalem, Alberto R., 2004. "Pension funds and national saving," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3410, The World Bank.
    10. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Optimal social security in a dynastic model with investment externalities and endogenous fertility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3545-3567, November.
    11. Tim Krieger, 2002. "Intergenerational Redistribution and Labor Mobility: A Survey," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 58(3), pages 339-361, July.
    12. Martin Feldstein, 1982. "The Welfare Cost of Social Security's Impact on Private Saving," NBER Working Papers 0969, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Martin Feldstein, 1985. "The Optimal Level of Social Security Benefits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 303-320.
    14. Bossi, Luca, 2008. "Intergenerational risk shifting through social security and bailout politics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2240-2268, July.
    15. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 33-55, Spring.
    16. Feldstein, Martin, 1999. "Social security pension reform in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 99-107.
    17. Sita Nataraj & John B. Shoven, 2003. "Comparing the Risks of Social Security with and without Individual Accounts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 348-353, May.
    18. Charles L. Ballard & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1982. "The Welfare Cost of Distortions in the United States Tax System: A General Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 1043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Martin Feldstein, 1985. "Should Social Security Be Means Tested?," NBER Working Papers 1775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Afonso, Luís Eduardo & Fernandes, Reynaldo, 2005. "Uma Estimativa dos Aspectos Distributivos da Previdência Social no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 59(3), July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.