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Immigration (from Ukraine) and labour market in Poland – evidence from Bayesian VAR models

Author

Listed:
  • Łukasz Postek

    (Narodowy Bank Polski
    University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Małgorzata Walerych

    (Narodowy Bank Polski
    Institute of Economics)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of immigration shocks in shaping unemployment and wage dynamics in Poland – a country that experienced a significant influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. To achieve this, we construct novel proxies for the size of immigration to Poland and use them to estimate structural BVAR models. Our results suggest that the impact of the 2022 refugee wave on the Polish economy differs from previous immigration inflows, primarily influencing aggregate demand and, to a lesser extent, boosting labour supply. More specifically, in recent years, immigration shocks have slightly reduced the unemployment rate and, to a greater extent, lowered the annual growth rate of real wages. At the same time, they contributed to higher growth in nominal wages, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants, which created significant consumption demand, was at its highest.

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz Postek & Małgorzata Walerych, 2025. "Immigration (from Ukraine) and labour market in Poland – evidence from Bayesian VAR models," NBP Working Papers 373, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:373
    Note: The authors would like to thank Paweł Kopiec, Jacek Kotłowski, Błażej Kowalski, Wojciech Łątkowski, Serhiy Stepanchuk, Karol Szafranek, Robert Wyszyński and the participants to the 8th Joint NBU-NBP 2024 Annual Research Conference and internal seminar at NBP for useful suggestions and comments. The authors are also grateful to an anonymous referee for the valuable comments and suggestions. The views in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Narodowy Bank Polski.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; Bayesian VAR; labour market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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