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Consumer inflation expectations Survey questions and quantification methods – the case of Poland

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Abstract

Qualitative data on inflation perceptions and expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified into numerical indicators of the perceived and expected rates of price change. This paper presents the results of different versions of probability and regression methods, implemented in order to estimate Polish consumer inflation perceptions and predictions, based on monthly consumer surveys. The paper also discusses the limited usefulness of quantitative questions, which occur to be excessively difficult for a significant part of respondents, whose numerical declarations are inconsistent with opinions expressed in a qualitative manner

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Lyziak & Ewa Stanislawska, 2006. "Consumer inflation expectations Survey questions and quantification methods – the case of Poland," NBP Working Papers 37, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:37
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    File URL: https://static.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy-i-studia/37_en.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 721, European Central Bank.
    2. Tomasz Łyziak, 2009. "Is Inflation Perceived by Polish Consumers Driven by Prices of Frequently Bought Goods and Services?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(1), pages 100-117, March.
    3. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," NBP Working Papers 178, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Ishak-Kasim, Syurkani & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2009. "Inflation expectations formation and financial stability in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 27763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Karolina Tura-Gawron & Maria Siranova & Karol Fisikowski, 2018. "ARE CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AN INTERNATIONAL PHENOMENON? Results of spatial panel regressions models," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 50, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Surveys; Quantification; Poland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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