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The productivity puzzle and the Kaldor-Verdoorn law: the case of Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Hubert Gabrisch

    (Wiesbaden Institute for Law and Economics (WILE))

Abstract

This study attempts to identify the short- and long-run components of the Kaldor-Verdoorn (KV) law in empirical economics. The law claims that demand dynamics drive productivity dynamics. The law is tested with a panel of ten Central and Eastern-European countries, where labour productivity and demand growth have been slowing since 2004/2006 and where fears of an end of convergent growth are spreading. Meanwhile, the gradual slowing of output and productivity growth applies not only to the region considered in this study, but it is also a global phenomenon that is occurring despite remarkable technical progress and that is referred to as the so-called productivity puzzle. However, this puzzle would be solved in light of the KV law. To test for the short-term and long-term properties of this law, least squares and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are applied. Our results confirm the law for the region; slower productivity growth is not due to 'adverse technological progress' but to weakening external and domestic demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Hubert Gabrisch, 2020. "The productivity puzzle and the Kaldor-Verdoorn law: the case of Central and Eastern Europe," NBP Working Papers 318, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:318
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Rebecca Riley & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Lea Samek, 2018. "Below the Aggregate: A Sectoral Account of the UK Productivity Puzzle," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2018-06, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Hubert Gabrisch, 2021. "The long-run properties of the Kaldor–Verdoorn law: a bounds test approach to a panel of Central and East European (CEE) countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 101-121, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity conundrum; Kaldor-Verdoorn law; panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model; Eastern Europe.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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