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Macro-financial linkages in the Polish economy: combined impulse-response functions in SVAR models

Author

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  • Dobromił Serwa
  • Piotr Wdowiński

Abstract

We estimated a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model describing the links between a banking sector and a real economy. We proposed a new method to verify robustness of impulse-response functions in a SVAR model. This method applies permutations of the variable ordering in a structural model and uses the Cholesky decomposition of the error covariance matrix to identify parameters. Impulse response functions are computed for all permutations and are then combined. We explored the method in practice by analyzing the macro-financial linkages in the Polish economy. Our results indicate that the combined impulse response functions are more uncertain than those from a single specification ordering but some findings remain robust. It is evident that macroeconomic aggregate shocks and interest rate shocks have a significant impact on banking variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2016. "Macro-financial linkages in the Polish economy: combined impulse-response functions in SVAR models," NBP Working Papers 246, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:246
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walentin, Karl, 2014. "Business cycle implications of mortgage spreads," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-77.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lidiema, Caspah, 2018. "Intra-market linkages in the financial sector and their effects on financial inclusion," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 28, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    2. Ulrichs Magdalena, 2018. "Identification of Financial and Macroeconomic Shocks in a Var Model of the Polish Economy. A Stability Analysis," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 29-43, April.
    3. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2021. "Macrofinancial linkages in Europe: Evidence from quantile local projections," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5557-5569, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    vector autoregression; Cholesky decomposition; combined impulse response; banking sector; real economy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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