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Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules

Author

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  • Raf Wouters

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Michel Dombrecht

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

In this paper, the interaction between inflation and monetary policy rules is analysed within the framework of a dynamic general equilibrium model derived from optimising behaviour and rational expectations. Using model simulations, it is illustrated that the control of monetary policy over the inflation process is strongly dependent on the role of forward looking expectations in the price and wage setting process and on the credibility of monetary policy in the expectation formation process of the private sector. Furthermore, the central bank should take into account a wide variety of indicators in making monetary policy decisions in order to approach the optimal monetary policy rule as closely as possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Raf Wouters & Michel Dombrecht, 2000. "Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules," Working Paper Research 01, National Bank of Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200003-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Monetary policy in an estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    2. Jukka Railavo, 2004. "Effects of the supply-side channel on stabilisation properties of policy rules," Macroeconomics 0404028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jeanfils, P., 2000. "A Model with Explicit Expectations for Belgium," Papers 4, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    4. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 171, European Central Bank.
    5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    6. George VAN GASTEL & François COPPENS & Hilde MEERSMAN & Nathalie SELLEKAERTS & Eddy VAN DE VOORDE & Thierry VANELSLANDER & Ann VERHETSEL, 2010. "Economic Impact of Port Activity: A Disaggregate Analysis. The Case of Antwerp," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100044, EcoMod.
    7. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Luc Aucremann & David Cornille, 2001. "Attractive prices and euro-rounding effects on inflation," Working Paper Document 17, National Bank of Belgium.

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