IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nan/wpaper/1102.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Oil and Gold Prices: Correlation or Causation?

Author

Listed:
  • Thai-Ha LE

    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore)

  • Youngho CHANG

    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore)

Abstract

This paper uses the monthly data spanning from Jan-1986 to April-2011 to investigate the relationship between the prices of two strategic commodities: gold and oil. We examine this relationship through the inflation channel and their interaction with the index of the US dollar. We use different oil price proxies in our investigation and find that the impact of oil price on gold price is not asymmetric but non-linear. Our results show that there is a long-run relationship existing between the prices of oil and gold. Our findings imply that the oil price can be used to predict the gold price.

Suggested Citation

  • Thai-Ha LE & Youngho CHANG, 2011. "Oil and Gold Prices: Correlation or Causation?," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1102, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:1102
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www3.ntu.edu.sg/hss2/egc/wp/2011/2011-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Das, Debojyoti & Bhatia, Vaneet & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Basu, Sankarshan, 2022. "Do precious metals hedge crude oil volatility jumps?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A view to the long-run dynamic relationship between crude oil and the major asset classes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 286-299.
    3. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Luqman, Muhammad & Mugheri, Adil & Ahmad, Najid & Soytas, Ugur, 2023. "Casting shadows on natural resource commodity markets: Unraveling the quantile dilemma of gold and crude oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    5. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    6. Yakup Soylemez, 2021. "The causality relationship between energy prices and developed countries indices," Bussecon Review of Social Sciences (2687-2285), Bussecon International Academy, vol. 3(2), pages 24-40, April.
    7. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Awe, Olushina O., 2017. "Time series analysis of co-movements in the prices of gold and oil: Fractional cointegration approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 117-124.
    8. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Balcilar, Mehmet & Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel, 2017. "Does oil predict gold? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 257-265.
    9. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Owusu Junior, Peterson & Ahmad, Nasir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Time-varying risk analysis for commodity futures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Sahadudheen, I., 2015. "Understanding the nexus between oil and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 85-91.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; gold price; inflation; US dollar index; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. 黃金投資 in Wikipedia Chinese

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:1102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Magdalene Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dentusg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.