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The Effects of Inflation and Demographic Change on Property Crime: A Structural Time-Series Approach

Author

Listed:
  • R. Alan Seals
  • John Nunley

Abstract

This paper extends previous empirical research on the determinants of aggregate property crime rates in two dimensions. First, we examine the effect of inflation on property crime rates. Then, using a structural time-series approach we show that it is possible to estimate consistently the effects of exogenous macroeconomic variables on aggregate property crime rates without introducing endogenous deterrence to the model. Inflation is statistically significant, positive, and persistent for all property crime rates examined. We conclude that price stability contributes considerably to the reduction of property crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Alan Seals & John Nunley, 2007. "The Effects of Inflation and Demographic Change on Property Crime: A Structural Time-Series Approach," Working Papers 200701, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:mts:wpaper:200701
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    File URL: http://capone.mtsu.edu/berc/working/Seals-Nunley(2007).pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yearwood, Douglas L. & Koinis, Gerry, 2009. "Revisting Property Crime and Economic Conditions: An Exploratory Study to Identify Predictive Indicators beyond Unemployment Rates," MPRA Paper 16834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Khadija Waheed & Ali Iqtedar Mirza, 2020. "Estimation of Multidimensional Urban Poverty in South Asian Cities: A Case of Lahore Metropolitan Area," International Journal of Innovations in Science & Technology, 50sea, vol. 2(3), pages 61-79, September.
    3. Abdul Hamid, Baharom & Habibullah, Muzafar & Mohd Noor, Zaleha, 2013. "Crime and Its Socio-Macroeconomics Determinants: A Panel-Error-Correction Cointegration Analysis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 47(2), pages 13-24.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    property crime; inflation; female labor force participation; manufacturing employment; structural time series; unobserved component models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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