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Le taux de change réel d'équilibre dans les pays en transition : le cas de la Hongrie

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  • Nathalie Avallone

    (TEAM-CESSEFI, Université Paris 1)

  • Amina Lahreche-Revil

    (Université d'Amiens, CEPII et TEAM-CESSEFI, Université Paris 1)

Abstract

We estimate two complementary models of real equilibrium exchange rate to assess the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the hungarian Forint. The first model uses the Balassa-Samuelson effect, where the behaviour of the real exchange rate depends on the relative productivities. This second one is a model of "behavioural" real equilibrium exchange rate, relying on the simultaneous attainment of internal and external equilibrium, and using a demand-oriented approach (Edwards [1994]). On the period of analysis (1985-1997), both estimates converge on the diagnosis that the exchange rate policy of Hungary focused on external competitiveness vis-à-vis the European Union

Suggested Citation

  • Nathalie Avallone & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 1999. "Le taux de change réel d'équilibre dans les pays en transition : le cas de la Hongrie," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla99091, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    • Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla99091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Patrick K. Asea, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General Equilibrium Appraisal," UCLA Economics Working Papers 709, UCLA Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    2. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    equilibrium exchange rate; transition economies; Hungary;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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