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Minimum Wage Shocks, Firms and Employment Evidence from Africa

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Abstract

Despite the widespread use of minimum wage policies to combat poverty in Africa, research on their effects remains limited. This paper addresses this gap by examining the economic impact of minimum wage shocks on firms across the African continent using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. We document that all but four African countries have a minimum wage system. Between 2002 and 2019, we identify 13 shocks-defined as a 30% real increase-in 11 countries. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate the causal effects of these shocks on labor costs, employment, sales, and productivity. To address potential endogeneity, we instrument minimum wage changes using social protest intensity. We find that minimum wage shocks significantly increase labor costs per worker, suggesting at least a partial enforcement of regulations. However, we detect no robust impact on employment. Instead, firms partly offset higher labor costs through increased sales or productivity. We identify three complementary mechanisms: (1) a cleansing effect, where less productive firms exit; (2) capital investment as an adjustment channel; and (3) a local demand boost, with stronger sales effects in large markets

Suggested Citation

  • Rémi Bazillier & María Moraga-Fernández, 2025. "Minimum Wage Shocks, Firms and Employment Evidence from Africa," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 25006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25006
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    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05016199
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum Wages; Africa; employment; firms; labor regulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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