IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mse/cesdoc/12093.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La dette publique française justifie-t-elle l'austérité budgétaire ?

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Recent talks claiming the necessity of austerity measures in France often take the unsustainibility of public debts as a starting point. In this analysis, we show that the current public debt levels in France are not a sufficient reason to undertake such austerity policies. To substantiate our claims, we apply a VAR methodology on six relevant macroeconomic French series. A negative shock of only -1% to public expenditures is found more likely to have recessionary effects (increased deficit, debt and a higher level of unemployment) rather than the expected positive effects. In particular, it would presumably increase unemployment in France by 1 million people, confirming that the main scenario threatening France today is a deflationary liquidity trap akin to the Japanese scenario

Suggested Citation

  • Gaël Giraud & Florent Mc Isaac & Rossi Abi Rafeh, 2012. "La dette publique française justifie-t-elle l'austérité budgétaire ?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12093, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2012/12093.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    National debt; austerity; VAR; national budget;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucie Label (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cenp1fr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.