Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- John Laitner & Dan Silverman, 2005.
"Estimating Life-Cycle Parameters from Consumption Behavior at Retirement,"
NBER Working Papers
11163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Laitner & Dan Silverman, 2005. "Estimating Life—Cycle Parameters from Consumption Behavior at Retirement”," Working Papers wp099, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Harris, Christopher & Laibson, David, 2001.
"Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 935-957, July.
- Christopher Harris & David Laibson, 1999. "Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1886, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
- Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1985.
"Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 389-408.
- Daniel S. Hamermesh, 1982. "Expectations, Life Expectancy, and Economic Behavior," NBER Working Papers 0835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gábor Kézdi & Robert J. Willis, 2003. "Who Becomes a Stockholder? Expectations, SUbjective Uncertainty, and Asset Allocation," Working Papers wp039, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2007.
"The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States,"
Chapters, in: Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, chapter 4,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2006. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," PGDA Working Papers 1706, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2006. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," NBER Working Papers 12688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1995. "Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30, pages 268-292.
- Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2004.
"The effects of subjective survival on retirement and Social Security claiming,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 761-775.
- Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2002. "The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming," Working Papers wp021, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie Zissimopoulos, 2003. "The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirements and Social Security Claiming," Working Papers DRU-3008, RAND Corporation.
- Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2002. "The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming," NBER Working Papers 9140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 2002.
"The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 966-985, October.
- Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1997. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival," NBER Working Papers 6193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lee Lillard & Robert J. Willis, 2001. "Cognition and Wealth: The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking," Working Papers wp007, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
- Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022.
"Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
- Costa-Font, Joan & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2021. "Biased Survival Expectations and Behaviours: Does Domain Specific Information Matter?," IZA Discussion Papers 14876, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Costa-Font, Joan & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: does domain specific information matter?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112709, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Joan Costa-i-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2021. "Biased Survival Expectations and Behaviours: Does Domain Specific Information Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9424, CESifo.
- Huynh, Kim P. & Jung, Juergen, 2015.
"Subjective health expectations,"
Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 693-711.
- Juergen Jung, 2008. "Subjective Health Expectations," CAEPR Working Papers 2008-016, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Kim P. Huynh & Juergen Jung, 2010. "Subjective Health Expectations," Working Papers 2010-08, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
- Leonardo Becchetti & Fabio Pisani & Berkan Acar, 2023. "Eudaimonic wellbeing and life expectancy," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 179-195, May.
- Edwin Wong, 2015. "Marital bargaining in the demand for life insurance: evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 243-268, June.
- Huynh, Kim P. & Jung, Juergen, 2015.
"Subjective health expectations,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 693-711.
- Juergen Jung, 2008. "Subjective Health Expectations," Caepr Working Papers 2008-016, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Kim P. Huynh & Juergen Jung, 2010. "Subjective Health Expectations," Working Papers 2010-08, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised May 2014.
- Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013.
"Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
- Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
- Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Differential Mortality in Europe and the U.S. Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Working Papers 613, RAND Corporation.
- Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2010. "Stochastic mortality, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Differential Mortality in Europe and the U.S. Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Working Papers WR-613, RAND Corporation.
- Alberto Palloni & Beatriz Novak, 2016. "Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 14(1), pages 187-228.
- Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.
- Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1377-1400, November.
- Sanna Nivakoski, 2020. "Wealth and the effect of subjective survival probability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 633-670, April.
- repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-040 is not listed on IDEAS
- John Payne & Namika Sagara & Suzanne Shu & Kirstin Appelt & Eric Johnson, 2013. "Life expectancy as a constructed belief: Evidence of a live-to or die-by framing effect," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 27-50, February.
- Apostolos Papachristos & Georgia Verropoulou & Cleon Tsimbos & George Ploubidis, 2020. "Factors incorporated into future survival estimation among Europeans," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(2), pages 15-56.
- Owen O'Donnell & Federica Teppa & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2008. "Can subjective survival expectations explain retirement behaviour?," DNB Working Papers 188, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Todd Elder, 2013. "The Predictive Validity of Subjective Mortality Expectations: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 569-589, April.
- Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013.
"Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
- Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
- Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2022.
"Biased survival expectations and behaviours: Does domain specific information matter?,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 285-317, December.
- Costa-Font, Joan & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2021. "Biased Survival Expectations and Behaviours: Does Domain Specific Information Matter?," IZA Discussion Papers 14876, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Costa-Font, Joan & Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, 2022. "Biased survival expectations and behaviours: does domain specific information matter?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112709, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Joan Costa-i-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2021. "Biased Survival Expectations and Behaviours: Does Domain Specific Information Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9424, CESifo.
- Yang, Qianqian & Ye, Zihan & Chen, Rongda, 2024. "Working longer or working harder? Subjective survival expectations and labor supply in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 827-847.
- Adeline Delavande & Michael Perry & Robert Willis, 2006. "Probabilistic Thinking and Early Social Security Claiming," Working Papers wp129, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Adeline Delavande & Jinkook Lee & Seetha Menon, 2017. "Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 673-699, April.
- Wu, Shang & Stevens, Ralph & Thorp, Susan, 2015. "Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 39-56.
- Martin Salm, 2010.
"Subjective mortality expectations and consumption and saving behaviours among the elderly,"
Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 1040-1057, August.
- Martin Salm, 2010. "Subjective mortality expectations and consumption and saving behaviours among the elderly," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1040-1057, August.
- Spaenjers, Christophe & Spira, Sven Michael, 2015.
"Subjective life horizon and portfolio choice,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 94-106.
- Spaenjers , Christophe & Spira, Sven Michael, 2013. "Subjective Life Horizon and Portfolio Choice," HEC Research Papers Series 985, HEC Paris.
- Sanna Nivakoski, 2020. "Wealth and the effect of subjective survival probability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 633-670, April.
- Alberto Palloni & Beatriz Novak, 2016. "Subjective survival expectations and observed survival: How consistent are they?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 14(1), pages 187-228.
- Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Differential Mortality in Europe and the U.S. Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Working Papers 613, RAND Corporation.
- Bissonnette, L. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2010. "Retirement Expectations, Preferences, and Decisions," Other publications TiSEM 45e93b08-cc1d-47c6-ba06-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2010. "Stochastic mortality, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2016.
"A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs,"
Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 137-180.
- Max Groneck & Ludwig, Alexander & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs," MEA discussion paper series 201305, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper & Max Groneck, 2014. "A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs," Working Papers 473, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs," Working Paper Series in Economics 63, University of Cologne, Department of Economics, revised 22 Nov 2013.
- Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig, 2014. "A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs," Working Papers 201465, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2015. "A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs," SAFE Working Paper Series 73, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2015.
- Bruno Arpino & Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri, 2022.
"I am a survivor, keep on surviving: early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life,"
Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 471-517, April.
- Bruno Arpino & Pierluigi Conzo & Francesco Salustri, 2018. "I'm a survivor, keep on surviving: Early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 572, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
- Arpino, Bruno & Conzo, Pierluigi & Salustri, Francesco, 2019. "I’m a survivor, keep on surviving: Early-life exposure to conflict and subjective survival probabilities in adult life," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201904, University of Turin.
- Cormac O'Dea & David Sturrock, 2019.
"Survival pessimism and the demand for annuities,"
IFS Working Papers
W19/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Cormac O'Dea & David Sturrock, 2021. "Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2276, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Cormac O'Dea & David Sturrock, 2020. "Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities," NBER Working Papers 27677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vesile Kutlu-Koc & Adriaan Kalwij, 2017. "Individual Survival Expectations and Actual Mortality: Evidence from Dutch Survey and Administrative Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 509-532, October.
- de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Other publications TiSEM a7e2b4d8-fed0-4e86-926f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022.
"Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models,"
NBER Working Papers
30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," Staff Reports 1018, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MRRC Administrator (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isumius.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.