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Establishing Fault: The Electoral Impact of Induced Earthquakes

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  • Afiq bin Oslan

Abstract

Political science has used natural disasters to study whether voters are sensitive to the environment. The complex nature of disasters, however, can present obstacles to causal identification. In this study, we look at a uniquely and overtly human-caused disaster—earthquakes from natural gas drilling in the Netherlands—to see whether these disasters persuade citizens to vote more environmentally. We combine polling station-level voting data with precisely calculated measures of earthquake impact, and we find that pro-environmental party vote share is generally higher in affected locations. These findings provide further support for the theory that environmental damage strengthens the preference for green parties, a relationship that will only become more important as human destruction of the environment worsens.

Suggested Citation

  • Afiq bin Oslan, 2023. "Establishing Fault: The Electoral Impact of Induced Earthquakes," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2023-21, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:mpi:wpaper:tax-mpg-rps-2023-21
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    File URL: http://www.tax.mpg.de/RePEc/mpi/wpaper/TAX-MPG-RPS-2023-21.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baccini, Leonardo & Leemann, Lucas, 2021. "Do natural disasters help the environment? How voters respond and what that means," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 468-484, July.
    2. Hazlett, Chad & Mildenberger, Matto, 2020. "Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Environment Voting within Democratic but Not Republican Areas," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1365, November.
    3. Thomas R. Gray & Daniel S. Smith, 2022. "Retrospective Voting in the Premodern World: The Case of Natural Disasters in the Roman Republic," Journal of Historical Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 477-497, October.
    4. Cole, Shawn & Healy, Andrew & Werker, Eric, 2012. "Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 167-181.
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    Keywords

    environmental politics; Green parties; natural disasters; exogenousvshocks;
    All these keywords.

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