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Un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (MEGC) pour évaluer les effets de l'ouverture au commerce international : le cas de l'Afrique du Sud

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  • Nicolas Hérault

    (GED, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV)

Abstract

Cet article présente les résultats d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (MEGC) appliqué au cas de l'Afrique du Sud. L'objectif est d'évaluer les effets des politiques de libéralisation commerciale sur la croissance économique, les dynamiques sectorielles et, dans une moindre mesure, les revenus des ménages. Le modèle utilisé comporte 43 secteurs, 4 facteurs de production, 14 ménages représentatifs, 10 régions du monde (pour le commerce extérieur) et tient compte de certaines imperfections des marchés (chômage,…). Deux types de politique sont simulés : l'accord de libre échange signé en 1999 avec l'Union Européenne et une suppression unilatérale de tous les droits de douane. Quatre procédures de bouclage différentes sont utilisées pour chaque simulation. Bien que positifs, les impacts s'avèrent limités, tant sur la croissance du commerce extérieur que sur celle du PIB. D'autre part, les politiques d'ouverture commerciale nuisent à certains secteurs industriels et surtout, semblent accroître systématiquement les inégalités de revenu. This article presents the results of various simulations carried out on South Africa using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The aim is to analyze the effects of various trade liberalization policies on economic growth, activities dynamics, and to a less extent, on households’ incomes. The CGE model consists in 43 activities, 4 production factors, 14 representative households, 10 trading regions (for the foreign trade). Some market imperfections, like unemployment, are taken into account. Two kinds of policies are simulated: the free trade agreement signed with the European Union in 1999 and the elimination of tariff barriers. Each simulation is run under four different sets of closures. Although positive, the impacts are limited, as well as on the growth of the foreign trade as on that of the GDP. Besides, trade liberalization negatively affects the activity levels of some industries, and above all, it seems to systematically increase the income inequalities. (Full text in french)

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Hérault, 2004. "Un modèle d'équilibre général calculable (MEGC) pour évaluer les effets de l'ouverture au commerce international : le cas de l'Afrique du Sud," Documents de travail 102, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    • Handle: RePEc:mon:ceddtr:102
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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